Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL | AAPL Price Prediction) may launch an expensive folding iPhone. Major competitor Samsung already has its folding phone product Z Fold6. It sells for as much as $1,900.
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo posted on X, “Recent market rumors suggest Apple has placed an order for 15–20 million foldable iPhones. Based on checks across multiple components, this volume likely reflects cumulative demand over the product’s 2–3 year lifecycle, rather than 2026 alone.” He expects a launch in the second half of next year.
Apple needs a winner. The iPhone 16’s sales have been mediocre. For one thing, it has not changed much from the iPhone 15. Consumers were told it would launch at almost the same time as a new iOS that would have impressive AI features. That did not happen. This has allowed artificial intelligence (AI) leaders such as Meta, Google, OpenAI, and Amazon to pull well ahead in the AI consumer product business. Apple will not launch an advanced AI product until next year.
Apple has not found an AI software partner in China. It is the largest smartphone market in the world. Local companies, led by Xiaomi, Huawei, and Oppo, have impressive market share.
Apple also faces tariffs of as much as 25% for iPhones imported from China. Apple planned to move much of its production to India as a way to keep iPhone prices at current levels. This angered President Trump, and Apple may have run out of ways to avoid the tariffs. This means Apple faces much lower margins, or the need to increase prices.
In the most recently reported quarter, iPhone revenue was up a bit, to $46.8 billion from $46.0 billion in the same quarter a year ago.
Does Apple management think a folding iPhone can solve some of its problems? If it plans to order as many as 20 million of them, perhaps.
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