Elon Musk says everyone in the world will have a robot. There are 8.3 billion people in the world. No one knows how much these robots will cost, but for argument’s sake, do the math. At that level, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) will be, without question, the most valuable company in the world and will undoubtedly have a market cap of over $10 trillion.
Tesla’s market cap is $1.42 trillion today. And, the world’s most valuable company, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), has a market cap of $4.18 trillion. That is after a market sell-off that took it down 10%.
The core of the $10 trillion market-cap figure depends on whether Musk is even partially correct. What about just one billion robots instead of 8 billion? That should be enough to take Tesla’s market cap up by 7x from today
The robot-to-market-cap ratio is at the core of Musk’s argument that his company’s car sales will eventually be trivial. As Tesla car sales drop today, it hardly matters, he says.
Add to his argument about market value that Musk says Tesla will have the first truly self-driving car. That means the passenger will have to do nothing. It also means the car’s use is approved by government agencies worldwide. It also means that competitors like Waymo won’t be able to beat him.
Another assumption is that Musk’s Optimus robot will be the best in the world. Of course, he said, everyone in the world may have a robot. Perhaps some of those will come from other companies.
Musk is the best CEO salesman in history. What people sometimes forget is that he often delivers. The EV market in the US was virtually nonexistent in 2012. Tesla launched the Model S (which has since been discontinued) and proved that the EV market was massive, particularly when China is taken into account. Not every EV in the world is a Tesla, but Musk is the grandfather of the industry.
The idea that part of a rocket could be re-landed and reused was also preposterous until it wasn’t. SpaceX does not add to Tesla’s market cap. It is proof that Musk has a habit of delivering.
No one in the world can have a robot until they do. At that point, Tesla’s market cap will be over $10 trillion.
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