Research In Motion Cannot Be Sold

The board and management of Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) apparently would like to sell the company. That will not happen. It is not a good fit with any of the potential buyers.

RIM’s management announced that the current quarter would produce an earnings loss, which was not expected. Shares fell 15% and now trade at $11, against a two-year high of almost $70. Management reported that it had hired JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) and RBC Capital to “explore options.” Under the dire circumstances, this means a planned sale.

Possible buyers include the world’s largest consumer electronics and smartphone manufacturers. That list has to include Nokia (NYSE: NOK), Samsung, Sony (NYSE: SNE), LG, HTC and Motorola, at least. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) could be added to the list for fun.

Nokia as a buyer might make sense on paper. It was the number one handset company in the world for years. It lost that position to Samsung late in 2011. Nokia’s sales have stumbled badly. Its smartphone operations are in deep trouble. But RIM has a market cap of $6 billion and Nokia’s is only $11 billion. The larger company almost certainly could not find the necessary capital. RIM shareholders do not want stock in failing Nokia. That would leave Nokia to turn to its smartphone software partner, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). The reason for Microsoft’s marriage with Nokia is to get distribution for its Window’s mobile OS. There is no reason for Microsoft to help a transaction that would add the BlackBerry OS to Nokia’s arsenal. It would take years to convert the BlackBerry operating software to Windows, if such a transition was possible at all.

Samsung is the only hugely successful smartphone manufacturer on a list of RIM buyers, both in sales and the size of it balance sheet. But Samsung does not need a partner that is in the process of disintegration. Its new Galaxy smartphones and tablets have already begun to challenge Apple’s iPhone and iPad. Management at Samsung very likely believes it can move into first place in the global smartphone market without any help.

Motorola, now owned by Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), is also a poor candidate. One reason Google bought Motorola was to get a larger set of smartphones to expand use of its Android OS. Like Nokia, it would have to convert RIM products to a new OS — a long and very risky process.

LG might be the only likely buyer of RIM. It is one of the largest handset companies in the world and one of the largest corporations in South Korea. LG is the second-biggest handset firm in the U.S. by market share, but its smartphones are overshadowed by those from Apple and Samsung. Its flagship Optimus and Phoenix lines are not considered popular choices among high-end smartphone consumers. LG might take a long shot on RIM, but it would need to take a huge financial and reputation risk to do so.

There is no realistic buyer for RIM, whether the Canadian company is intact or in pieces. Customer attrition is too rapid. It has no products that sell well any more. That leaves the company to fall apart and eventually disappear.

Douglas A. McIntyre