BlackBerry Credit Ratings at Risk Under Fairfax Buyout

Fitch noted that Fairfax Financial Holdings’ consortium bid could have potential negative credit implications. These are based on the company’s past track record, although Fitch did say that it expects any potential BlackBerry purchase would “most likely be done within current rating expectations.”

Fitch also warns investors and creditors that this potential BlackBerry acquisition remains fluid, with the reminder that it comes in the form of a letter of intent rather than as a definitive agreement.

Fitch also said that it recognizes how much BlackBerry’s business model is under intense pressure. It warns that the new strategy to move away from consumer products could be unsuccessful. The report said:

Fitch could take negative rating actions should Fairfax decide to increase its ownership in BlackBerry in a manner that would significantly increase financial leverage, decrease holding company cash or deplete insurance subsidiary capital. Fitch would also view negatively any acquisition, even if reasonably financed, that resulted in a concentrated investment of Fairfax’s capital. The value of the current offer is $4.7 billion for all of BlackBerry, which is very large compared to Fairfax’s reported total assets of $36.1 billion and shareholders’ equity of $8.6 billion as of June 30, 2013.

Fitch’s ratings expect that Fairfax’s financial leverage ratio will be maintained at no higher than 35%, versus 33% as of June 30, 2013.

The real risk is that Fairfax still has the option to exit the deal as part of its due diligence review. Fitch also points out that this a doubling-down trade for Fairfax, as it paid an average of $17 per share for its current 10% ownership of BlackBerry. Fitch also brings up the uncertainty risk around the make-up of the buyout consortium, even though it has been published that Canadian pension funds likely would be involved.

As a reminder, 24/7 Wall St. has warned that it seems likely that BlackBerry will sell for less than the $9 initial offer.

BlackBerry shares were down more than 4% at $8.18 in late-morning trading on Wednesday. Its 52-week trading range is $6.63 to $18.32.