The IATA forecasts fares down by 5.1% in 2015 and cargo rates down 5.8% due to more competition for customers. The $25 billion industry profit represents a margin of 3.2%. Per passenger net profit is expected to rise to $7.08, compared with $6.02 in 2014 and just $3.38 in 2013.
The IATA’s CEO said:
The industry story is largely positive, but there are a number of risks in today’s global environment — political unrest, conflicts, and some weak regional economies — among them. And a 3.2% net profit margin does not leave much room for a deterioration in the external environment before profits are hit.
The return on invested capital is forecast to rise to 7% in 2015, still slightly below the weighted average cost of capital, which the IATA forecasts at 7.8%.
The association bases its forecast on a per-barrel price of Brent crude oil at $85, the first time since 2010 that the average price will settle below $100.
In North America, profit per passenger is forecast at $15.54 and net profit margins are forecast at 6%. After-tax profits are expected to total $13.2 billion in 2015, more than half of the global total.
Net profits in the Asia-Pacific region are forecast at $5 billion, a net margin of just 2.2% and a per passenger profit of $4.30.
European carriers will continue to struggle. Net profit margin is forecast at just 1.8%, totaling $4 billion, compared with $2.7 billion in 2014. Per passenger profit is forecast at $4.27.
At the same time Wednesday morning, aircraft maker Airbus forecast a need for more than 5,300 new passenger jets and freighters in China alone between 2014 and 2033. That represents 17% of global demand for over 31,000 new planes in the 20-year period.
The short version is that airplane builders and the airlines appear to have a rosy outlook for the next few years.
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