June Car Sales Forecast Higher, but GM Share Sliding

Automakers will be reporting June light vehicle sales totals on Friday, and if forecasts are correct, it will be a solid month. Analysts at Edmunds.com expect June sales to total about 1.53 million units and Kelley Blue Book (KBB) analysts are expecting sales of 1.55 million units. Either would represent an increase compared with June of last year.

Edmunds expects year-over-year sales to rise 3.8%, but drop 0.2% compared with May 2016. Analyst Jessica Caldwell noted, “As long as economic conditions — like low unemployment and easy access to credit — continue, the industry will be in a strong position through the busy summer sales months.”

According to Edmunds, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales in June will be 16.9 million. KBB has pegged the June SAAR at 17.1 million.

Analyst Tim Fleming at KBB said:

As we head into summer, sales should stabilize just slightly ahead of last year’s pace.  This month’s volume will mark the highest June since 2005, when 1.67 million units were sold during a wave of discounts.

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Among U.S. carmakers, KBB expects General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) sales to rise 1% year over year to 262,000 while Edmunds analysts see sales of around 256,000, a drop of 1.3%. Edmunds forecasts GM’s June market share at 16.7%, down 0.9 points from June 2015 and KBB sees GM’s share at 16.9%.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expected to sell 235,000 (KBB) to 238,00 (Edmunds) units, a gain of 4.6% to 6.2% over June 2015 sales. KBB has tabbed Ford’s June share at 15.2% while Edmunds forecasts the company’s June market share at 15.6%.

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is expected to post June sales of 207,000 (Edmunds) to 215,000 (KBB) units. Toyota’s market share is forecast at 13.6%, down 0.7 point compared with June 2015 and up 0.7 point compared with the prior month.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (NYSE: FCAU) is expected to raise its June market share to 13% (KBB), up 0.4 points compared with June 2015. KBB forecasts unit sales to rise by 8.6% to 201,000 units while Edmunds sees unit sales of 197,000, up about 6.7% year over year.

Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) should post sales of 144,000 (Edmunds) to 148,000 (KBB) units in June, well above last year’s total of around 134,000 units.

KBB expects both Nissan and Hyundai/Kia to post market share gains compared with June 2015.

Edmunds forecast VW sales, including Audi, at 47,676, down about 2.1% year over year but slightly higher than May 2016 sales. It is worth noting that KBB expects Subaru sales to reach 50,000 in June, just 3,000 below VW sales.

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