Ford’s 3.9% Problem

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By Douglas A. McIntyre Published
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Ford’s 3.9% Problem

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Ford offers an incentive of 3.9% APR for 60 months on its F-150 full-sized pickup, the best-selling vehicle in the United States for four decades. Ford has had a tight inventory, so it is hard to figure out why the company would do this. In a period of spiking interest rates, 3.9% is a financial risk that could bite Ford in the next few years.
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Incentives are nearly as old as the car industry. When there is plentiful inventory, manufacturers use them to clear dealer lots. And management complains that these incentives cut into profits. However, supply chain challenges have taken dealer inventory to extremely low levels. It is one reason that a 3.9% APR does not seem to make sense.
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Ford may have an oversupply of some models, even though that would seem improbable. It also may find the market share of the F-150 is threatened by its competition, the Chevy Silverado and Ram. Chevy does offer some incentives on the Silverado, although they do not appear as aggressive as Ford’s.

The Ford offer has to be financed via Ford Credit, the financial arm of the car company. Ford could make a profit on these loans. However, it is unclear what Ford will have to “pay” for this money in the years ahead if incentives stay in place. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes could extend well into next year.
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To get an idea of what interest rate banks offer on car loans, note that Chase charges 6.24% on 60-month car loans. Ford has undercut that. Once again, the issue is why.
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Ford’s incentives may need to be more aggressive next year. Although inventory has been tight, Wall Street believes a recession could sap demand. The car industry may go from empty lots to dealers who need help from manufacturers to clear their lots. The 3.9% deal could drop lower.

Photo of Douglas A. McIntyre
About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.

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