Nissan Leaf: The 99 MPG Car, But Are There Buyers?

Nissan announced that :

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved its fuel-economy label for the 100-percent electric Nissan LEAF, rating the vehicle to be “best” in the midsize vehicle class for fuel efficiency and “best” for the environment. The new label shows a best-in-class 99 miles-per-gallon (MPG) equivalent (combined city/highway). The MPG equivalency rating was developed by the EPA as a way to provide a standard so consumers can compare vehicles across the spectrum and make an educated purchase

What the EPA does not say is whether there is a market for electric cars. The Nissan Leaf will go on sale next month

Less than a month ago, auto research firm JD Power said the sales for electric vehicles would live up to their hype.   It predicted that combined global sales of hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles would hit 5.2 million units in 2020, or just 7.3 percent of the 70.9 million passenger vehicles forecasted to be sold worldwide by that year. Sales  in 2010 are expected 954,500 vehicles, or 2.2 percent of the 44.7 million vehicles projected to be sold.

The report said ” it will be difficult to convince large numbers of consumers to switch from conventionally powered passenger vehicles to HEVs and BEVs.” Among the hurdles the alternative energy vehicles face is that the price of gasoline is still relatively low, electric cars demand premium prices because of the cost of their technology, and there is little government support for adoption of the products. The research company concluded that “Based on currently available information, none of these scenarios are believed to be likely during the next 10 years.”

The problem is not unusual, particularly in the auto business. Car companies have come up with a number of innovations which consumers refused to adopt for years such as anti-lock brakes and air bags. These added expense to the cost of vehicles and were only widely adopted when the federal government forced the issue or the price of the technology came down sharply.

Electric cars still have a large number of additional hurdles. One is how much electricity they will use in the homes of their owners. Another is a lack of “service” stations which drivers can use to power up batteries when they are far from home.

The dream of a highways populated by electric and other low emissions cars may be no more than hope. If wishes were horses, all the beggars would ride.

Douglas A. McIntyre