Ford Short Interest Falls

Ford’s shares are up only 2% in the past month, a worse performance than the S&P 500 over the same period.

Shares sold short in Ford dropped by 4.7 million to 71.9 million. While the figure may appear large, with Ford’s volume it would take only two days of average trading to cover the short positions, which was marked on March 31 and compares to March 15. That trend could reverse itself soon.

Ford did suffer poor sales in March, and Japanese rival Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) nearly caught it. For the month, Ford’s sales fell 3.5% to 234,786. Toyota’s U.S. sales in March rose 4.9% to 225,959.

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One of the primary reasons for Ford’s problems is sales of its flagship, the F-Series pickup. With March sales of 67,706, the F-Series was well ahead of the next best-selling vehicle in America, General Motors Co.’s (NYSE: GM) Chevy Silverado. However, sales of the F-Series dropped 4.6% last month, while Silverado sales rose 7%. Ford management has argued that production constraints have hurt F-Series sales. They presume that its revolutionary design based on aluminum, which makes the truck about 700 pounds lighter than earlier versions, will bring in new customers. However, the confidence in the new F-Series is only based on a theory that has not been supported by early sales activity.

Ford has also struggled with sales of its other best-selling vehicles. Sales of its top-selling car, the Fusion, dropped 11.9% to 29,044 in March. Sales of Ford’s best-selling sport utility vehicle, the Escape, dropped 8.4% to 26,303. Finally, sales of its luxury brand, Lincoln, continue to be tiny and falling, down 3.1% to 8,695 in March. By contrast, the best-selling luxury brand in the United States, Mercedes, sold 32,300 cars and light trucks, up 10.2%. The one bright number among those given out by Ford was that sales of its Mustang sports car were higher by 36.1% to 12,663. That figure is far too small to help America’s number two auto manufacturer much.

For the time being, Ford’s most popular vehicles are in trouble. Every other large car company has vehicles that compete directly with each of them.

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Finally, one measure of a car company’s short-term future is the new models it announces. Ford did not have much more than its Focus sedan. That raises the question of how soon Ford will have new products, to give consumers a reason to come to its showrooms.

Short sellers could use the opportunity of Ford’s difficulties to add to the positions near term.