Is Goldcorp the Best Gold Stock Now?

By Jon C. Ogg Published Jan 12, 1:50PM EST

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Is Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) becoming the best gold stock out there? If the analysts at Merrill Lynch turn out to be correct, Goldcorp is the top senior gold producer to own in 2015. This news comes just a few days after the gold producer maintained the same dividend payout when so many competing gold stocks were forced to lower theirs. The Merrill Lynch call is also on the heels of a loose defense of Goldcorp just a week earlier.

On January 6 Goldcorp declared its first monthly dividend payment for 2015 at $0.05 per share. Shareholders of record at the close of business on Thursday, January 15, 2015 will be entitled to receive payment of this dividend on Friday, January 23, 2015. What is interesting is that many other gold miners and producers were forced to slash their dividends and payouts as gold prices have tumbled. That Goldcorp dividend has been in place each month since January of 2012, after having been raised from $0.045 per share.

Merrill Lynch’s Michael Jalonen, David Forster and Lawson Winder issued the fresh report. The analyst team cited a strong fourth quarter of 2014 gold output forecast. They also noted that Goldcorp is expected to release its fourth-quarter operating results and operating guidance for 2015. The company had reiterated its 2014 gold output guidance range of 2.95 million to 3.10 million ounces a quarter earlier, with a bias to the lower end, and all-in-sustaining-costs (AISC) at the lower end of the $950 to $1,000 per ounce range. It expects cash costs to decline 10% to 15% over the next several years. The team said:

In our view the market will be more focused on the 2015 operating forecasts. Achieving growth target should lead to multiple expansion Goldcorp sees its gold production rising by 30% over the next five years to 3.5 to 3.8 million ounces in 2018.

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Another positive from Merrill Lynch is that Goldcorp shares are now trading at 1.49 times its net asset value, or about an 8% premium to its peer North American gold producers. The team believes that delivering on Goldcorp’s high-quality growth pipeline would lead to a re-rating for Goldcorp to a 25% to 30% premium against peers.

In another unrelated analyst note, RBC Capital Markets recently opined that it is concerned that Goldcorp did not meet its 2014 production guidance. Still, the firm suggested remaining buyers on any weakness, with the thesis that its production through 2016 will push its sustainable production costs down close to 20%.

Goldcorp’s consensus price target is just above $27, and the highest analyst price target is just above $32. Its shares were trading up 3% at $21.42 late on Monday, against a 52-week range of $17.01 to $29.65. Goldcorp’s current dividend yield for its common stock is roughly 2.8%.

About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.