Morningstar noted that across all four business segments, after-tax operating income (ATOI) increased relative to the same period in the previous year. Alcoa’s alumina segment constitutes half of its upstream operations, and in the fourth quarter this segment nearly tripled its ATOI sequentially. As a result of these highlights, Morningstar increased its near-term operating margin forecasts for the alumina and primary metals segments. The firm also raised its fair value estimate to $20, which translates to upside of 26.5%.
Merrill Lynch reiterated a Buy rating and a $20 price objective, implying an upside of over 26%.
Midstream and downstream guidance was underwhelming for the aluminum giant, it was hurt by F/X despite having an upbeat aluminum demand of 7% year over year. The ATOI estimate for Global Rolled Products for the first quarter was seen as flat compared to the previous year despite a rise in F-150 output by Ford and aero growth amid pricing pressure.
For 2015, Alcoa forecast global aluminum demand at 4%, excluding China. It also set its expectations at 9% to 10% growth in global commercial aerospace, 2% to 4% in global auto sales and 4% to 5% growth in North American building and construction.
The company outlined its 2015 targets as $500 million in free cash flow, compared to $455 million in the previous year, and $1.475 billion of capex, versus $1.2 billion in 2014.
Wells Fargo has a rating of Outperform for Alcoa and a valuation range of $22 to $24. The upside from the midpoint of this range is 45.5%.
Earnings per share was reported as $0.33, which is considered the best earnings quarter since the second quarter in 2008. Revenues were reported at $6.4 billion, above consensus estimates of $6.0 billion.
The firm considers the upstream as debatable because the momentum has faded entering 2015, as primary pricing has fallen over 5% quarter-to-date. Brazilian power sales are another headwind.
The midstream and downstream cost improvements are considered favorable. These operations are exposed to prolonged cycles in autos and aerospace. There is $900 million in productivity improvements across business segments this year, which is incrementally positive and an additional buffer if upstream prices soften.
Overall, Wells Fargo views Alcoa as defensive and believes that the potential upstream headwinds are manageable. The $500 million in targeted free cash flow generation makes Alcoa’s shares fairly defensive against a tough commodity backdrop.
Wells Fargo offered this investment thesis of Alcoa:
Alcoa is well positioned to capitalize on growth in aerospace and aluminum share gains in auto. The health of upstream operations is more debatable, but regional premiums have been strong and Alcoa continues to take costs out of the model. Valuation is very reasonable, in our view, at 7x 2015 EBITDA, which is at the low end of mid and downstream peers.
Shares of Alcoa were down about 2% to $15.81 in the second half of Tuesday’s trading session. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $18.72 and a 52-week range of $10.16 to $17.75.
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