The Cowen analysts make a very solid case that sliding oil prices combined with local currency weakness may prove to be a huge boon for the big gold miners. With most miners having substantial operations outside of the United States, the continuing strength of the dollar does not provide a constant headwind. In addition, many of the companies are very adept at also hedging local currency where they do have production. All of this may lead to margin expansion.
For the next two years, the Cowen analysts have earnings estimates for the miners that are substantially higher than most current Wall Street estimates. We screened the Cowen coverage universe for stocks rated Outperform.
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Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) is the largest and maybe the strongest of the stocks to buy at Cowen. The company’s assets or operations are located in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Mexico and New Zealand. Newmont was founded in 1921, so investors do not have to worry if the company will be around in the future. Newmont has approximately $5 billion in cash, revolver capacity and marketable securities on its balance sheet and will continue to evaluate and optimize the best use of free cash flow, including investing in profitable projects, repaying debt and returning capital to shareholders. This is one of the top gold stocks to have in a portfolio.
Newmont investors are paid a tiny 0.4% dividend. The Cowen price target is $28.97, and the Thomson/First Call consensus price target is lower at $24.21. Newmont closed Monday at $24.61 a share.
Royal Gold Inc. (NASDAQ: RGLD) is another top play that makes the Cowen list. The company is a precious metals royalty company engaged in the acquisition and management of precious metal royalties and similar interests. Its portfolio consists of 202 properties on six continents, including interests on 36 producing mines and 21 development stage projects. Late last year the company announced a 5% hike in its annual dividend to $0.88 per share from $0.84 per share. On a quarterly basis, the company will pay $0.22 per share. That is a very bullish corporate statement for shareholders in a tough environment.
Royal Gold investors are paid a 1.25% dividend. The Cowen price target is $86.85, and the consensus target is set at $85.10. Shares closed Monday at $70.40.
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Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) is a smaller market cap contender for investors looking to add a higher share count. The company has been known to use extremely conservative assumptions in declaring its reserves, and as a result, it downgraded very few ounces last year. In fact, Yamana’s reserves were essentially flat year-over-year. Furthermore, the company’s resources, which is a category of in-ground gold that is less restrictive, grew meaningfully year-over-year. The company reports earnings Wednesday, so aggressive investors may want to buy some stock in front of the numbers.
Yamana Gold investors are paid a 1.43% dividend. Cowen has a $6.01 price target, and the consensus target is $5.88. Shares closed Monday at $4.19.
Sandstrom Gold Ltd. (NYSEMKT: SAND) is a lesser known stock that makes the Cowen list and could make sense for many investors who are wary of gold-mining stocks. Sandstrom is a gold-streaming company that focuses on acquiring gold and other precious metal purchase agreements from companies that have advanced stage development projects or operating mines primarily in Canada, Brazil and Mexico. The company offers upfront financing for gold-mining companies that are looking for capital, and in return it receives a gold-streaming agreement, which gives it the right to purchase a percentage of the gold produced for the life of the mine at a fixed price per ounce.
The Cowen price target for this very unique company is $5.09, and the consensus target is set at $4.50. Shares ended trading on Monday at $3.93.
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With negative sentiment still rampant on gold, and short interest still present as well, if the earnings surprise scenario that Cowen thinks is possible comes to fruition, shares in these stock could jump meaningfully. While aggressive, and not for conservative accounts, solid asset allocation plans usually allow for a 5% position in gold in most well-rounded portfolios.
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