Can Cliffs Save Itself With Earnings?

Cliffs is an iron ore and coal producer that has seen its share price tumble from a high of nearly $100 in July 2011 to a recent low of $4.12. Some of that is due to declining global demand for steel, primarily in China. Because both iron ore and the company’s metallurgical coal are major ingredients in steelmaking, Cliffs was hit with a double whammy.

Now Cliffs is also contending with a strong dollar that makes its exports more costly than iron ore from South America or coal from Australia. The company’s iron ore resources are well-placed in the United States near the country’s principal steel production cities, but that is a drag on exports.

What may have hurt Cliffs most was a $1.4 billion non-cash write-down in 2013 on its acquisition of a Canadian iron ore miner and an expansion project at its Bloom Lake mine, among other things. Things went downhill from there.

After Cliffs reported fourth-quarter results earlier this year, Credit Suisse had a price target of $1 and an Underperform rating on the stock. Merrill Lynch rated the company at Underperform with $4 price target. Not exactly a vote of confidence.

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Since then shares have lost about $0.80, or nearly 12%, and the consensus price target on the stock is around $4.60. Analysts have very negative targets on Cliffs, and some of them have even questioned these targets with more fears than that.

Shares traded down about 1.5% to $6.04 in the late morning Tuesday, in a 52-week range of $4.12 to $18.41.