Cliffs Natural Resources May Finally Have Turned Around

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLF) reported first-quarter 2016 results before markets opened Thursday. The iron ore and coal miner posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.62 on revenues of $306 million. In the same period a year ago, the company reported a loss per share of $4.26 on revenues of $446 million. The consensus estimates called for a net loss of $0.10 per share on revenues of $271.8 million.

The company reported net profit of $117 million, compared with a year-earlier loss of $762 million. During the quarter, it recorded a $179 million gain on debt restructuring and extinguishment.

Total U.S. iron ore production volume fell from 5.38 million metric tons (tonnes) in the first quarter of last year to 3.05 million tonnes, and sales margins per tonne fell from $27.15 to $6.91.

The company’s total iron ore production in Asia/Pacific was down less than 10%, from 2.88 million tonnes to 2.81 million tonnes, and sales margins rose nearly 30-fold, from $0.26 in the year-ago quarter to $6.31.
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CEO Lourenco Goncalves said:

Cliffs’ first-quarter results clearly demonstrate how far we have come on our turnaround. … The steel market in the United States has started to show consistent signs of a real recovery, with a direct positive impact on our steel clients’ order books and, consequently, a totally expected improvement in our clients’ appetite for the pellets we supply them.

Cliffs reiterated its U.S. full-year sales projection of around 17.5 million tonnes. Cash production costs are still expected at $50 to $55 per tonne. In Asia/Pacific, the company expects sales volume of 11.5 million tonnes and cash production costs of $25 to $30 per tonne.

Consensus estimates call for a second-quarter net loss of $0.13 per share and revenues of $461.91 million. For the year, analysts are looking for a net loss per share of $0.43 on sales of $1.81 billion.

The company raised its capex estimate from $50 million to $75 million for the year. The increase is needed to meet a specific customer requirement.

Since posting a low of around $55 a tonne late last year, iron ore pellet prices have risen to around $73 a tonne at the end of March. Demand for steel is picking up, as Goncalves noted, and mining stocks are getting some love again.

Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE), the world’s largest iron ore miner, also reported $2 billion in adjusted net income for the first quarter, partly on rising prices and partly on stronger Brazilian reals. Vale’s shares traded up more than 4% Thursday morning at $5.83, more than double the 52-week low of $2.13.

Cliffs traded up about 9.3% Thursday morning, at $4.71 in a 52-week range of $1.20 to $6.87. The consensus price target is $2.00, indicating that few analysts have paid much attention to the stock for a while now.