If any sector has had a rough go of it over the past four years, it has been mining and precious metals. Since peaking in 2011, gold appears finally to have bottomed last December, and it has made a serious upside move since. The problem for investors is that many of the top stocks in precious metals and mining made that move as well, and as a result they are in many cases fully valued now.
In a new Jefferies research report, gold is touted as the firm’s favorite commodity now. With Chinese demand starting to ratchet back up, and with some supply constraints starting to factor in, the firm has a modestly better outlook factored in. However, the analysts feel that the recent positives are already factored into most stocks’ current prices. Two companies remain Buys, and both make sense for long-term aggressive growth portfolios.
Newmont Mining
This is one of the largest mining companies, as well as a solid buy for growth accounts. Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) is a leading gold and copper producer. It has approximately 29,000 employees and contractors, with the majority working at managed operations in the United States, Australia, Ghana, Peru, Indonesia and Suriname. Newmont is the only gold producer listed in the S&P 500 index, and it was named the mining industry leader by the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index in 2015.
The company posted mixed quarterly results recently. While the earnings missed the Wall Street estimates, revenues actually came in above estimates. The company has lowered debt almost 19% since the end of 2014, a huge positive for investors.
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Newmont generated free cash flow (FCF) of $756 million in 2015, which is more than double that of 2014. Most of the increase was due to cost and productivity improvements. It has been self-funding projects and dividends, unlike many of its peers. This solid FCF is a huge plus for investors looking to add a company with a solid balance sheet and conservative accounting standards.
Newmont investors are paid a small 0.38% dividend. The Jefferies price target for the stock was raised to $33, and the Thomson/First Call consensus target stands at $26.46. The stock closed most recently at $26.75 per share.
Rio Tinto
This is a combined value and contrarian play for investors to consider. Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE: RIO) is involved in the mining and production of aluminum products, including bauxite, alumina and aluminum; copper, gold, silver and molybdenum; diamonds, borates, salt and titanium dioxide feedstocks, as well as high purity iron, metal powders, zircon and rutile; thermal and coking coal, and uranium; and iron ore. The stock has been extremely weak over the past two years due to falling iron ore prices, but at current levels the Jefferies team sees a value case.
In fact, in the past analysts maintained that while iron ore demand may remain a problem, they expected a restocking-driven demand recovery in China. While the analyst acknowledges the risk that copper and iron ore prices could fall in the near term due to growing supply, the long-term outlook may be improving.
The stock remains a top pick because of the company’s lower cost operations and stronger than peers FCF. It should be noted though that the company said in February that this year’s annual dividend could be roughly half the $2.15 per share payout declared for 2015.
Rio Tinto investors are currently paid a 7.74% dividend, but remember, that will be lower in 2016. The Jefferies price objective is set at $33, and the consensus target is at $29.93. The shares closed Wednesday at $28.53 apiece.
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These are clearly more contrarian calls, and only suitable for more aggressive accounts. However, a pickup in global growth and demand could be on tap for the second half of 2016, and that could benefit both of these top companies.
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