iPhone sales cannot reach 50 million without substantial help from China. Apple’s Greater China revenue in its last reported quarter was $5.9 billion, putting it behind Europe’s $8.1 billion, and North America’s $14.6 billion. However, the difference in growth rates across these markets is what Apple optimists point to. Greater China growth for the quarter was 28% over the same period a year ago. North America’s growth rate for the same period was 1% and Europe’s only 6%.
According to several sources, China iPhone sales have already exploded, and the explosion will continue. Research firm Canalys estimates Apple already leads all smartphones sales in China. Apple has a partnership with China Mobile (NYSE: CHL), which is by far that largest wireless company in China when measured by total subscriptions, and has a particularly large lead in the critical 4G market. The carrier said it had 153 million 4G subscribers at the end of April, up from 106 million at the end of January.
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The most likely large barrier to Apple iPhone growth is Samsung’s new Galaxy S6. Samsung was ahead of Apple in smartphone sales worldwide for over a year, until the iPhone 6 was released. The South Korean company’s only chance to regain its position at the top of the market is strong sales of the Galaxy S6. And, some experts expect Galaxy S6 sales to be unprecedented. According to Android Authority:
Industry watchers initially predicted Samsung would sell as many as a combined 50 million Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge units by the year’s end but, according to The Korea Times, Samsung has even more optimistic goals of the device. An unnamed Samsung exec reportedly stated “The Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge are drawing positive responses. I have no doubt that they will be the biggest-sellers in the Galaxy series ever,” with the exec going on to state they estimate sales will be in the “70 million plus” range.
The increase would sharply improve Samsung’s global market share, and that can only happen if its takes substantial share from Apple.
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