How Far Will GoPro Slide?

So far in January, it looks like we are in a bear market, with most broad markets down over 10% in the first two weeks of trading alone. Much of this can be attributed to a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter. GoPro Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRO) added to this sentiment when it reported certain preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter.

This stock has been on the long way down after it debuted on the market in 2013. Shares were above $90 at one point, but since then they have slowly slid to the current price level. The stock has been pushing lower lows, well below the IPO price, so a technical bounce might be out of the question, and calling a bottom now might not be realistic.

The company expects revenue to be roughly $435 million for the fourth quarter of 2015 and $1.6 billion for the calendar year. The consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters call for $511.87 million in revenue in the fourth quarter and $1.69 billion in revenue for the calendar year.

Fourth-quarter revenue reflects lower than anticipated sales of its capture devices due to slower than expected sell through at retailers, particularly in the first half of the quarter. At the same time, fourth-quarter revenue includes a $21 million reduction for price protection related charges resulting from the HERO4 Session repricing in December.

However, GoPro’s woes did not stop there. The company stated in its release:

Over the past two years, GoPro’s headcount has grown by more than 50% annually, to more than 1,500 employees at the end of 2015. To better align resources to key growth initiatives, GoPro has implemented a reduction in its workforce of approximately 7%. The Company estimates it will incur approximately $5 million to $10 million of restructuring expenses in the first quarter of 2016, substantially all of which will be severance costs.

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As a result of GoPro’s weakness, we are also seeing fallout in Ambarella Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) as well. Ambarella develops and sells semiconductors that enable high definition video capture, shares and display, and GoPro is one of its largest clients.

Shares of GoPro closed Wednesday at $14.61, with a consensus analyst price target of $30.72 and a 52-week trading range of $14.32 to $65.49. Following the release of guidance, the stock was down 24% at $11.05 in early trading indications Thursday.

Ambarella shares closed Wednesday at $44.59. The consensus price target is $77.60, and the 52-week range is $40.22 to $129.19. In early trading indications Thursday, the stock was down over 10% at $39.85.