Why Analysts Are Staying Positive on Nike After Conservative Guidance

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) has come out with earnings, and the tone is far different from 2015. That being said, investors remain bullish and some analysts are staying very positive. The stock was up only 0.3% at $64.90 ahead of earnings, and shares closed out the week at $61.65.

24/7 Wall St. already covered the Nike earnings report. Despite the guidance driving shares down after the report, some analysts and investors are thinking that perhaps Nike was being conservative so that it could surpass expectations.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintained its Buy rating and $72.00 price objective after earnings. The firm’s Robert Ohmes said that Nike’s global momentum is strong, and he also said that Nike’s forward earnings and sales guidance appears conservative — EPS grew 22% versus implied guidance of low-single-digit growth. His investment rationale said:

We believe Nike’s outlook should be supported by global share gains driven by a powerful footwear product pipeline, price increases, and direct-to-consumer expansion. In addition, Nike’s margin outlook continues to improve led by rising average selling prices, favorable revenue mix shift and healthy global inventory levels.

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Credit Suisse’s Christian Buss reiterated his Outperform rating and raised its target to $68 from $67. His report said:

Nike continues to translate strong demand momentum into earnings power, as the company reported EPS of $0.55, ahead of our in-line expectation for $0.49. There was solid demand across geographies and channels, with the direct to consumer channel (up 29% Y/Y) showing particular strength across multiple geographies. Futures growth remained healthy as sell-in for upcoming key marketing events led to double-digit growth across every region. We continue to view Nike as an exceptional executor within the maturing athletic market and see the potential for double-digit earnings growth to be sustained going forwards.

Other analyst calls were seen as follows, with some less-bullish reports included for balance:

• Barclays reiterated its Outperform rating and $75 target.
• Canaccord Genuity maintained its Hold rating.
• Citigroup reiterated its Buy rating.
• Hilliard Lyons maintained its Neutral rating.
• Nike was maintained as Buy but the price target was cut to $74.00 from $76.00 at Jefferies.
• Morningstar kept its Hold rating and made no change to its $55 fair value estimate.
• S&P Capital IQ maintained its Buy rating on Nike with a $73.00 price target.
• Sterne Agee CRT reiterated its Buy rating.
• Susquehanna reiterated its Positive rating, echoing that guidance seemed conservative.

Investors should also consider that JPMorgan added Nike to its analyst focus list (beating out Lululemon on that list) two days ahead of Nike’s earnings report.

As mentioned, Nike shares ended the week at $61.65. The 52-week trading range is $47.25 to $68.19, and the consensus analyst price target is $70.51.