Any good news about jobs is surprising news. The data about unemployment has been that bad. The economy is not supposed to add to non-farm payrolls much more than a few hundred thousand jobs in the third quarter. Some economists expect no additions at all.
But a new Gallup poll shows many people are more optimistic than might be expected. “Gallup’s Job Creation Index was at +15 in June. While this does not differ much from the +14 of May or the +13 of April, it is the highest since September 2008’s +16,” the research firm reports. Gallup’s explanations for the numbers — that, for the most part, employers have stopped layoffs — are inadequate.
There is no real evidence that unemployment has gotten much better. Whatever improvements occurred in the first half of 2011 are over. The 58,000 jobs the economy added in May hardly dented the vast pool of over 16 million unemployed Americans, of which over six million have been out of work more than a half a year.
The Gallup data is based on the impressions of those polled at one brief shot in time, which is all that a single poll can do. The results are likely to look different as the same questions are asked next month and through the balance of the year.
Methodology: For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup Job Creation Index results are based on a random sample of approximately 500 current full- and part-time employees each day.
Douglas A. McIntyre
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks