Another Sign Unemployment Progress Is Stalled

The unemployment situation in the U.S. improved in the final quarter of last year, but ever so slightly. The federal government says the economy added a little over 120,000 new jobs in October and November. Private sector improvement was partially offset by public sectors layoffs. There are concerns that if the consumer economy does no rise in the first quarter, then some private sector jobs will be lost, or none will be added. Public sector unemployment will rise, almost certainly. Austerity is at the center of most budgets at the municipal, state and local levels.

The addition of 100,000 of jobs or so a month will not nearly make up for months during the recession in which half a million of more jobs were lost. That is why CBO and Federal Reserve forecasts predict the jobless rate will remain above 8% until 2013.

There is additional evidence that job creation is very low, or almost nonexistent.

As Gallup reports in a new poll:

Job market conditions in the U.S. remain unchanged in December, with Gallup’s Job Creation Index continuing at +14 for the third month in a row. While job creation has not improved during recent months, the jobs situation has not deteriorated as it typically does at this time of year.

These Gallup numbers are better than at the same time last year, but not by much. Perhaps concern among companies about sales  contributes to ongoing caution. Workers who are consumers may worry that a new extension of tax cuts will not last more than the present two-month period. If the jobless numbers hold for whatever reason, the first quarter of 2012 will not be a period of great job creation. It will merely be a period when unemployment holds its own.

Methodology: For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup Job Creation Index results are based on a random sample of approximately 500 current full-time and part-time employees each day.

Douglas A. McIntyre