Big Disappointment in Durable Goods for September

Bloomberg had the consensus estimate at 2.5% on the headline report, with a broad range of 0.4% growth to 7.0% growth. On an ex-transportation basis, the Bloomberg consensus was for 0.5% growth and the range was listed as -0.2% up to 1.1%.

Aircraft demand really helped this report. We would also point out that many of these orders were in just ahead of the federal government shutdown, and that throws in an added wrench.

Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft was down 1.1%, and this is the main measurement on business spending. Defense capital spending was up more than 13% ahead of the fiscal year-end.

This is another weak report by our count, one that allows the mantra of Fed bond buying to keep chugging along without fears of any sudden tapering.