TrimTabs Indicates Weakest Monthly Payrolls Since February 2014

TrimTabs Investment Research indicates that its estimates were now the lowest monthly job growth since February 2014, when a mere 135,000 jobs were added to the economy.

TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury, and they are taken from the 142 million U.S. paychecks that are subject to withholding. TrimTabs noted that its estimates are not subject to major revisions long after their initial release.

In a research note, TrimTabs noted that growth in income tax withholdings has pulled back to its lowest level this year. The combined quote from Wednesday’s report said:

Turmoil in financial markets and emerging economies seems to be having a negative knock-on effect on the U.S. economy. Employment growth this month was much lower than the 241,000 jobs in August. … Market volatility, modest job growth, and softness in manufacturing suggest the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates any earlier than December. If asset prices don’t rebound, the Fed will likely stay on hold well into next year.

While TrimTabs was much lower than ADP, the market still focuses on ADP data, perhaps due to the seasonal adjustments and revisions.

Bloomberg has a 203,000 consensus estimate for the BLS data for Friday morning.

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