Saudi Vision 2030, or Saudi Folly?

Saudi Arabia has just released a 12,000-word, 15-year plan for supposedly revamping its economy called “Saudi Vision 2030.” It seems the oil crunch has motivated the kingdom to at least publicly acknowledge in writing that change is necessary.

The problem is that while there is a lot of grandiose talk in the document about setting up various government bodies and bureaucratic agencies that will look into ways to increase efficiency in various sectors, the essay has precious little detail as to how anything actually will get done. It reads more like a cheerleading document than an actual plan of action. Here are some examples.

The document sees Saudi Arabia as a “tolerant country” that will “welcome qualified individuals from all over the world and will respect those who have come to join our journey and our success.” As it stands now though, non-Muslims are forbidden from becoming citizens, and freedom of religion is outlawed, with no mention of this changing. The first barrier to economic growth is forbidding entire swaths of the human population from living freely in your territory.

While the document does give lip service to privatizations, it is extremely vague when mentioned, only saying that they will be “privatizing some government services” without mentioning which ones. It is, however, very specific when it talks about things like expanding mosques and serving Muslim pilgrims to Mecca, with the aim of increasing annual pilgrims from 8 million to 30 million. Will this lead to economic growth? Only if the added value of each new pilgrim exceeds the spending required to attract him to Saudi Arabia, a question only an entrepreneur can tackle, not a government agency.
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The vision is also very specific regarding increasing public spending for cultural venues like museums, libraries and sports venues without determining if there is any demand for any of that. In one of the more bizarre statements reminiscent of Maoist China, one passage gives a very specific number (450 to be exact) of amateur clubs to be established providing cultural activities and entertainment events with the goal of increasing the ratio of people exercising once a week to 40% from 13%.

The document is further riddled with references to government spending increases without explicitly calling them spending increases, as in “provide families with all the necessary support to take care of their children” and the like. It even justifies increased government expenditure now for the purposes of “longer term privatization,” presumably by 2030, as in these passages:

We intend to provide our health care through public corporations both to enhance its quality and to prepare for the benefits of privatization in the longer term. …We are in the process of determining additional sectors suitable for privatization. Our goal is to create a comprehensive privatization program.

The one positive that was specific was a commitment not to raise taxes and to keep the budget balanced, but that will be tough given all the programs that the Saudi government now clearly wants to embark upon.