Why Petrobras Investors Love Brazil’s World Cup Loss

Before you get too creative in evaluating Petrobras as a blueprint elsewhere, there is no real global tie between soccer and investing in oil companies. Still, there is for a direct correlation for Brazil.

What you have to consider, outside of our analysis that Petrobras could eventually be the best oil company to invest in globally, is that Brazilians had been demonstrating and rioting ahead of the World Cup’s debut in Brazil. The reason is that billions of dollars were spent to win and host the games, but the population received very little direct benefit. This could ultimately help to lead to a political regime change — and the current regime has been anti-business under President Dilma Rousseff.

Now consider that the capital structure and lack of regulatory and operating control inside the Petrobras management structure makes investing in Petrobras much riskier than in other oil giants. We recently showed how Petrobras was dealt yet one more crushing blow with the up-front fees to get at the offshore oil reserves. If a regime change occurs, this could change.

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Now consider that the common shareholders are treated much further down the line than in most oil giants because of a dominant ownership and control from the Brazilian government, the workers union and a large preferred share issue.

The CEO of Petrobras and the management team was not happy with the last wave of payment demands. Still, the CEO has said that the company will not have to have more shares for a capital increase. That might not mean that more debt is out of the question, but we will leave that view up to the crystal ball readers.

So, as amazing as it sounds Petrobras investors must be glad to see Brazil lose. The assumption is that capital flows to where it is treated best, and outside capital is treated very poorly compared to other destinations with better capital structures than it has been for years in Brazil.

Petrobras shares were up 3.5% at $14.97, with about two and a half hours until the close in New York trading. This has still bounced close to 50% from the mid-March lows, but the long-term chart (versus Exxon Mobil and even BP — see below) from Yahoo! Finance should represent how disenfranchised the common stock holders of Petrobras have felt in the past five years.

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One thing is left to consider here. Brazil’s October elections are not for another three months or so. Disparaged citizens and soccer fans may have had many new issues arise that make them forget all about wanting a regime change to a more  pro-business climate again. President Rousseff still has quite some time to rekindle or keep her anti-business policies in place.