The Honeymoon Isn’t Over Yet for BP, Rosneft

At the XX St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Friday morning, BP PLC (NYSE: BP) and Russia’s state-controlled oil company Rosneft signed agreements to create a new joint venture between the two companies to explore for oil in west and central Siberia. The venture is called Yermak Neftegaz and is 51% owned by Rosneft and 49% owned by BP.

In its announcement of the agreement, BP said it has committed to provide up to $300 million in two phases to the cost of Yermak’s exploration activities.

In 2008, BP’s current CEO, Bob Dudley, was basically run out of Russia on a rail when the government refused to renew his visa. In 2012 BP sold its 50% stake in oil company TNK-BP to Rosneft for $17 billion in cash and stake of nearly 13% in Rosneft. BP also agreed to purchase another 5% and, including the 1.5% it already owned, wound up with a stake of 19.75% in the Russian oil giant. The Russian government currently owns 69.5% of Rosneft and the rest is publicly floated on the Moscow stock exchange.

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Rosneft and Russia have suffered from low crude oil prices and U.S. and European Union sanctions since the country’s incursion into Ukraine. The country’s gross domestic product GDP dropped nearly 4% last year and the World Bank expects GDP to drop another 1.2% this year. Energy exports accounted for about 60% of Russian exports in the first four months of 2016, down from about 68% for the same period last year. About 25% of Russia’s 2015 GDP was tied to energy and the proceeds from energy sales made up about a third of the country’s fiscal budget.

To raise cash the government plans to sell off another 19.5% of Rosneft. The sale should raise around $2 billion, mostly from Russia’s own banks, and leave the government with a 50% stake.

Could BP increase its stake in Rosneft? The Russian company’s CEO has urged the government to stop BP from increasing its stake, but that likely has more to do with keeping his job than with what is best for the company. And as an asset, BP’s share of Rosneft has not performed particularly well, and some shareholders would support adding to BP’s stake if it meant that the British company could influence a change at the top of Rosneft. That may be wishful thinking.

BP’s American depositary shares closed at $32.03 on Thursday, up 2.8% for the day, and traded up about 0.7% in Friday’s premarket at $32.26.

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