60% Drop in Doctor Visits Threatens Huge Physician Shortage

The irony is that, during a point in history when the public needs doctors the most, thousands could go out of business soon. Outpatient visits to doctor offices are off as much as 60% nationwide. Some specialists face worse declines.

Harvard University and health care technology company Phreesia released a report that showed a 50% decline in doctor visits in mid-February and a 60% decline in mid-March. The data shows that the decline remained the same through mid-April.

Some patients and doctors have turned to telemedicine, but these visits barely put a dent in the fall-off in visits to offices.

Some practice areas were hurt much more than others. Ophthalmology visits fell 79%. Otolaryngology visits declined 75%. Dermatology visits fell 73%, and surgery is off by 66%.

Some practice areas did better than the average. Behavioral health visits fell by 30%. Obstetrics/gynecology is down 45%. Endocrinology and oncology fell 46% and 47%, respectively.
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About 44% of doctors work for hospitals. This may not help them keep their jobs, or at least not at past pay levels. Hundreds of hospitals across the country have had to slash costs as visits become dominated by COVID-19 patients. The presence of all these patients likely has caused healthy people to stay away as well. Layoffs have become routine within the industry, and some hospitals have closed completely.

Fifty-four percent of doctors are in private practice, either those they own themselves or those owned by other physicians. The financial structure these have to fall back on is a combination of revenue from visits and whatever the doctors who operate them have in savings.

A recent article in Medscape discussed how doctors might decide to keep practices open. Many private practices are simply doomed due to lack of capital and patients, while others might use layoffs to buy time. Still, others might close temporarily, which means they will not pay staff or see any patients at all.

The reality of the situation is that many doctors will close their businesses and retire. Some will have the money to retire comfortably. Others will not and will have to downsize their own lives.

Methodology: Researchers at Harvard University and Phreesia analyzed data on changes in visit volume for the more than 50,000 providers who are Phreesia clients.
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