U.S. Deaths Surge Toward 59,000, Blast Through Early Estimate
According to the Bing COVID-19 Tracker, global cases have reached 3,117,880. Active cases totaled 1,968,138, which is up 37,480 in a day. Recovered cases rose by 37,956 to 932,530. And deaths reached 217,212 worldwide, after jumping 5,996.
Total confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States have hit 1,035,045. Active cases reached 857,853, a gain of 20,394, while recovered cases were 4,374 higher to 118,228. Fatal cases in America have hit 58,964, up by 2,330 in a day.
A Stark Reminder Optimism About U.S. Deaths Was Misplaced
Models of the number of expected deaths in the United States have varied widely. On April 2, the Trump Administration said it expected 100,000 to 240,000 deaths before early August. It was not clear which of the many models for the spread of COVID-19 was used to pick the range.
On April 9, Dr. Anthony Fauci said at a White House briefing that the deaths for the same period until early August “looks more like 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000.” At that point, the 60,000 number gave hope that the disease would not spread like wildfire across America through the spring and summer. It also meant the death rate would slow substantially before the end of April.
On April 22, the Administration suggested a new death total of 66,000 through early August, based on a University of Washington University’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model. That is the most recent official figure issued by the White House.
It is now clear that U.S. deaths will reach 60,000 within a day and the 66,000 figure likely will be surpassed by the end of the week. Unfortunately, there still will be 12 weeks left before the early August date, which is the endpoint of the three estimates.
Canada’s Relatively Low Numbers
Canada’s population of 37,742,154 is 11% of America’s, which is currently 331,002,651. The ratio of COVID-19 confirmed cases is much different. Canada has 50,026 cases and 2,859 deaths. As mentioned, the comparable number for America is 1,035,045 cases and 58,964 deaths. So, Canada’s cases are less than 5% of America’s.
Canada’s figures are small enough that they match those for Illinois, the state with the fourth-largest number of cases. Illinois has 48,102 confirmed cases and 2,125 deaths from the disease.
The Canadian count is relatively low for several reasons. First, and most obvious, Canada has no huge city like New York. New York City currently has 295,106 confirmed cases and 17,671 deaths. New York’s population is 18,819,000. Toronto, Canada’s largest city, has a population of 6,082,000. Ontario, the province where Toronto is located, has a case total of 15,381 and 951 deaths. The geographic size of the two cities is similar, so the population density of New York is much greater.
Much of Canada has very few people at all. The vast central provinces of Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are as thinly populated as Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming, just to the south. Alberta has had 80 COVID-19 deaths. Manitoba has six and Saskatchewan has five. The figures for Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming are 15, 19 and seven, respectively. The size of the states and provinces and their low populations create a sort of natural social distancing.
Canada also has a sophisticated COVID-19 testing and tracking system, which was put into place in January and February. That may account for much of the difference in the numbers with the United States. However, Canada has started to have surges of cases in some areas.
The Mystery of India
Several of the world’s largest nations by population have very low official COVID-19 case and death counts. This is true in Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia and Nigeria. Each country is among the world’s 10 largest by population.
The most prominent example of a case and death count compared to the total population is India, which has a population of 1,338,558,742, only slightly less than that of China. India ranks 15th worldwide, with 31,332 confirmed cases and 1,008 deaths. That puts it behind 14th place, the Netherlands, with 38,416 total cases and 4,566 fatalities. The population of the Netherlands is 17,380,880.
Why is India’s case number so massively undercounted? For the same reason as other developing nations. It has neither the government infrastructure nor medical systems to diagnose cases, let along treat them. News reports indicate that tens of thousands of people already have died in India. Most of these deaths will never be diagnosed. That will remain the situation in India indefinitely. It is another reason the global count of cases and deaths is well below real numbers.
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