[cnxvideo id=”625479″ placement=”ros”]With major mergers and acquisition deals happening, and a host of clinical trials that could offer some outstanding breakthrough drug treatments, the big pharmaceutical stocks have had their fair share of attention so far this year. Toss in a degree of turmoil thanks to political rhetoric, and the sector has had a rough go compared to other S&P 500 sectors.
A new Jefferies research report features top picks for the fourth quarter, and while the status quo remains pretty much the same, the individual picks do shift a little. All the top picks are rated Buy at Jefferies.
AbbVie
This is the top global pharmaceutical stock pick at Jefferies. AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) is a global, research-based biopharmaceutical company formed in 2013 following separation from Abbott Laboratories. The company’s mission is to use its expertise, dedicated people and unique approach to innovation to develop and market advanced therapies that address some of the world’s most complex and serious diseases. AbbVie employs more than 26,000 people worldwide and markets medicines in more than 170 countries.
One of the biggest concerns with AbbVie is what eventually might happen with anti-inflammatory therapy Humira, which generated $14 billion in sales in fiscal 2015. That was the most any drug has recorded during a single year and represents a gigantic part of the company’s overall earnings. The problem is that biosimilars and generics are itching to enter the market with Amgen leading the charge, and some Wall Street analysts project that AbbVie may have a difficult time stopping that trend.
Back in May, the patent board instituted Coherus BioSciences’ Inter Partes Review against the Humira ‘135 patent. The outcome of the review is expected in 12 months. While most analysts remain positive on Humira duration, the expected litigation uncertainty could continue to create an overhang on the stock, which does give investors chances to pick up shares lower.
The stock trades at a small discount to its large pharmaceutical peers, and some on Wall Street cite the biosimilar issue as a likely reason why. However, some on Wall Street are still less than thrilled over the steep price the company paid to buy Pharmacyclics.
AbbVie investors receive a 3.63% dividend. The Jefferies price target for the stock is $90, and the Wall Street consensus target is $71.28. Shares closed Wednesday at $63.39.
[nativounit]
Eli Lilly
This is another stock with substantial upside potential. Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY) is a global health care company with numerous core products in a number of primary-care pharmaceutical markets. The company generates revenues from its pharmaceutical product and animal health segments.
The product portfolio includes Zyprexa (for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder), Gemzar (pancreatic cancer), Evista (osteoporosis), Cymbalta (depression), Cialis (erectile dysfunction), Strattera (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder), Erbitux (cancer) and Alimta (chemotherapy). Eli Lilly also has a strong presence in the diabetes market.
Eli Lilly reported mixed second-quarter earnings and revenue that were just slightly under consensus. While the overall numbers were unremarkable in some analyst’s view, Merrill Lynch is still very focused on the company’s outstanding late-stage product pipeline, which it and others on Wall Street view as very undervalued.
Shareholders receive a 2.52% dividend. Jefferies has a $105 price target, and the consensus target is $97.60. Shares closed Wednesday at $80.88.
Novartis
This is among the world’s largest pharmaceutical drug makers by sales and remains the number three pick at Jefferies. Novartis A.G. (NYSE: NVS) develops, manufactures and markets a range of health care products worldwide. It operates through three segments. The Pharmaceuticals segment offers patented prescription medicines for oncology, neuroscience, retina, immunology and dermatology, respiratory, cardio-metabolic, established medicines and cell and gene therapies.
The Alcon segment provides eye care products, including ophthalmic surgical equipment, instruments, disposable products and intraocular lenses; medicines to treat chronic and acute diseases of the eye and over-the-counter medicines for the eye; and contact lenses and lens care products.
The Sandoz segment offers generic prescription medicines that include active ingredients and finished dosage forms of pharmaceuticals for dermatology, respiratory and ophthalmic, cardiovascular, metabolism, central nervous system, pain, gastrointestinal and hormonal therapies; active pharmaceutical ingredients and intermediates primarily antibiotics; protein or other biotechnology-based products; and cytotoxic products for the hospital markets, as well as biotechnology manufacturing services to other companies.
Novartis investors receive a 3.02% dividend. The Jefferies price target was not set in U.S. dollars, but the consensus target is $95.16. Shares closed at $82.90.
AstraZeneca
This solid pick still offers investors a solid entry point after see-sawing this year. AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE: AZN) is a global, innovation-driven biopharmaceutical business that focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of prescription medicines, primarily for the treatment of cardiovascular, metabolic, respiratory, inflammation, autoimmune, oncology, infection and neuroscience diseases. AstraZeneca operates in over 100 countries, and its innovative medicines are used by millions of patients worldwide.
This company also has an outstanding pipeline, especially in oncology. The broad pipeline of next-generation investigational medicines is focused on four main disease areas: ovarian, lung, breast and haematological cancers. These are being targeted through four key platforms: immuno-oncology, the genetic drivers of cancer and resistance, DNA damage repair and antibody drug conjugates.
Oncology is a therapeutic area in which AstraZeneca has deep-rooted heritage. It will be potentially transformational for the company’s future, becoming the sixth growth platform. The long-term corporate goal is to help patients by redefining the cancer treatment paradigm and one day eliminate cancer as cause of death. By 2020, the company is aiming to bring six new cancer medicines to patients.
Shareholders are paid a 4.45% dividend. The $47.10 Jefferies price objective compares with the consensus target of $36. 79. The stock closed Wednesday at $30.80.
Zoetis
This company rounds out the top five pharmaceutical picks at Jefferies. Zoetis Inc. (NYSE: ZTS) engages in the discovery, development, manufacture and commercialization of animal health medicines and vaccines for livestock and companion animals in the United States and internationally.
The company offers anti-infectives that prevent, kill or slow the growth of bacteria, fungi, or protozoa; vaccines, which are biological preparations to prevent diseases of the respiratory, gastrointestinal and reproductive tracts or induce a specific immune response; and parasiticides that prevent or eliminate external and internal parasites, such as fleas, ticks and worms.
It also provides medicated feed additives that offer medicines to livestock; veterinarian solutions for anesthesia, pain management and the diagnosis of diabetes; and other pharmaceutical products, including pain and sedation, oncology, antiemetic, allergy and dermatology, and reproductive products. In addition, it offers other product categories comprising nutritionals and agribusiness services, as well as products and services in complementary areas consisting of biodevices, diagnostics and genetics.
Shareholders are paid a small 0.75% dividend. The Jefferies price target is $63. The consensus target is $55.15, and shares closed Wednesday at $51.42.
[wallst_email_signup]
Any of these top picks make good sense for long-term growth and income portfolios. With October being the month most likely for a downturn in the markets, investors may want to scale in capital over time.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks