Carl Icahn seems to believe that he has lost his bid for a seat on the Motorola (MOT) board.
If so, the stock will probably head back to where it was before the RAZR bailed the company out after the last hole it was in. In other words, back where it was in 2002. That year Motorla has its most recent full-year loss with red ink of $1.8 billion on revenue of $26.7 billion.
Management says that Q2 will be be as bad as Q1, but there should be an improvement in the second half. According to MarketWatch, Motorola "shipped 45.4 million handsets in Q1, down 31% from a company record 65.7 million in the final quarter of 2006".
But, that is hard to imagine. For Motorola to have an improvement later this year its handset business would have to recover significantly. With new models delayed until the second half of 2007, and with handset sales worldwide growing at below 10% for the first time in memory the thought that Motorola could stage a recovery this year is almost out of the question.
Motorola at $14 or below, again.
Just watch.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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