The Equity Horizon portfolio is a collaborative effort between the U.S. research departments of the UBS Investment Bank and UBS Wealth Management Americas. The purpose of the portfolio is to deliver the best UBS idea in order to identify and highlight a concentrated list of 12 to 15 stocks that the team expects will outperform the broader equity market tracked by the S&P 500.
The interesting aspect is this is a static portfolio that is expected to stay in place for an entire year, with no trading. We screened the list for the stocks that may have the best potential for the next 12 months.
Autodesk
This outstanding tech stock makes the list. Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ: ADSK) operates as a design software and services company worldwide. Its Platform Solutions and Emerging Business segment offers AutoCAD software, a computer-aided design application for professional design, drafting, detailing and visualization, as well as AutoCAD LT, a professional drafting and detailing software. The stock has sold off from highs printed in February and may be offering a stellar entry point.
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The company is beginning to benefit from the increased adoption of cloud-based services. Its software packages like Fusion 360, BIM 360 and PLM 360 are also gaining traction. However, in the near term, profitability remains under pressure due to investments in cloud-based infrastructure and marketing initiatives. The company reported so-so earnings in late August, and many feel any increase in construction, especially commercial, can help. The UBS team feels that this is a great entry point for the stock as it is trading near a 52-week low, down over 23% this year.
The Thomson/First Call consensus price target is $65.44. Shares closed Friday at $46.48.
Dollar Tree
This bargain retailer, also was hit hard in late August, is offering what could be a compelling entry point. Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is a leading operator of single-price point dollar stores under the Dollar Tree banner, along with multi-price points under the Deal$ banner, with over 5,000 locations in the United States and Canada. The company recently completed the purchase of competitor Family Dollar.
The UBS team likes the acquisition and they thinks that Family Dollar will become a much better operator and can close the sales productivity gap with Dollar General, which is the company’s closest competitor, over time. They also like the company’s strong cash flow and solid balance sheet.
The consensus price target is $80.81. The stock closed Friday at $66.65.
HCA
This is another top company that has rolled over lately and is offering a good entry point. HCA Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HCA) has scale advantages as the largest private hospital operator in the United States and is diversified geographically. The company also benefits from local market density, with the number one or two market share in most of its local markets. Many on Wall Street agree that increasing Medicaid enrollment and the potential for additional states to expand Medicaid eligibility could provide upside to their model and provide built-in growth for 2015.
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The UBS team feels that estimates for HCA are conservative for 2015 and beyond. They also note that HCA has as much of the potential health reform benefit in front of it as any of the hospital companies due to its limited benefit from Medicaid expansion in its service territory to date. They also point to the fact that any hint that Florida, Tennessee or Texas is considering moving forward with Medicaid expansion would be a significant positive catalyst.
The consensus price objective is set at $105.60. The stock closed Friday at $82.48, down over 4%.
Yum Brands
This is another big potential stock that has traded down since late May. Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) is famous for the company’s Taco Bell, Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) and Pizza Hut brands. While the domestic U.S. business has been very solid for the most part, especially at the Taco Bell restaurants, the company has experienced numerous issues in China. As of last summer, the company had a total of 6,387 restaurant units — or 15% of the total system restaurants in China. The majority of the restaurants were KFC. It had 4,653 units. That was followed by Pizza Hut with 1,349 units.
Many on Wall Street feel that the company could announce the separation of the operation in China when it holds its analysts day in December. This has continued to be a thorn in the Yum brands overall corporate performance, and investors may be very open to the split.
Investors are paid a 2.05% dividend. The consensus price target is $94.78, and the stock closed Friday at $80.15.
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It is important to remember that the UBS plan is a one-year buy-and-hold scenario. These were not selected to the portfolio as quick, short-term trade ideas. They all are well below the 52 week highs and have solid upside potential.
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