Despite the awesome success of the market during the so-called Trump Rally, it’s becoming clear that the market is tired, and we possibly have run a little too far, too fast. With the end of the year tax loss selling, combined with a general posture of taking some profit, the market has slowed down in its ascension. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which just a few trading days ago looked poised to top the 20,000 level, and may get close again today, is also looking overbought.
We decided to screen our 24/7 Wall St. research database for solid 2017 ideas that were still reasonably prices, and what better portfolio to look for ideas in than the UBS Quality Growth at a Reasonable Price (Q-GARP) portfolio.
The Q-GARP portfolio has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 since inception in 2007, and it offer investors an outstanding portfolio using an initial quantitative screen of stocks based on:
- Quality metrics: high and stable profitability
- Growth: high expected earnings growth
- Valuation: low valuation relative to peers
The final list is a compilation of quality growth stocks that the analysts believe are trading at attractive valuations. While trailing the S&P 500 on a total return basis this year, it has still outperformed since inception. We found five stocks that could be solid 2017 winners, and four of the five also pay solid dividends.
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CVS
This top stock has been hit hard this year, down over 25% since May. CVS Health Corp. (NYSE: CVS) provides integrated pharmacy health care services. Its Pharmacy Services segment offers pharmacy benefit management solutions, such as plan design and administration, formulary management.
The Retail/LTC segment sells prescription and over-the-counter drugs, beauty products and cosmetics, personal care products, convenience foods, seasonal merchandise and greeting cards, as well as provides photo finishing services.
The company operates 9,655 retail stores in 49 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and Brazil, primarily under the CVS Pharmacy, CVS, Longs Drugs, Navarro Discount Pharmacy and Drogaria Onofre names; online retail pharmacy websites; and 32 on-site pharmacy stores, long-term care pharmacy operations and retail health care clinics.
Note that some think Warren Buffett may have his eye on the company.
CVS investors receive a 2.53% dividend. The UBS price target for the shares is $88.50. The Wall Street consensus price target is $86.45. The shares closed Thursday at $79.
Home Depot
This company remains the undisputed leader in the home improvement retail category. Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, with 2,270 retail stores in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, 10 Canadian provinces and Mexico.
Home Depot stores sell various building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products, as well as provide installation, home maintenance and professional service programs to do-it-yourself (DIY), do-it-for-me (DIFM) and professional customers.
Home Depot could continue to be a benefactor from the damage done in Florida and along the Southeast from Hurricane Matthew. Toss in the huge rebuilding efforts in Louisiana after the severe flooding there, and the third and fourth quarter results could indeed be a bonanza for the company and investors.
Home Depot investors receive a 2.04% dividend. UBS has a $145 price target, while the consensus price objective is at $147.04. Shares closed Thursday at $135.10.
Invesco
This financial services leader has strong positions in both equity exchange traded funds (ETFs) and actively managed equity and debt mutual funds. Invesco Ltd. (NYSE: IVZ) looks to be very well-positioned to capitalize on inflows into both segments, as well as higher asset prices, as many on Wall Street see a continuation of the almost eight-year bull market.
Invesco PowerShares is the boutique investment management firm that manages a family of exchange traded funds (ETFs). The company has been part of Invesco, which markets the PowerShares product, since 2006. The incredible growth and popularity of the product is why many on Wall Street remain so bullish on the stock.
The analysts see the company as one that is best positioned to compete for share, given mix, product offerings and attractive relative performance.
Invesco investors receive a 3.72% dividend. The $30 UBS price target is less than the consensus target of $34.92. Shares closed Thursday at $30.10.
Mylan
This is another favorite at UBS that also sports a very appealing valuation. Mylan N.V. (NASDAQ: MYL) develops, licenses, manufactures, markets and distributes generic, branded generic and specialty pharmaceuticals worldwide. The company provides generic or branded generic pharmaceutical products in tablet, capsule, injectable, transdermal patch, gel, cream or ointment forms, as well as active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). It is also involved in the development of APIs with non-infringing processes for internal use and to partner with manufacturers, and the manufacture and sale of injectable products in antineoplastics, anti-infectives, anesthesia/pain management and cardiovascular therapeutic areas.
Mylan had attempted a takeover of drugmaker Perrigo last year, which was fought off, and the company has since announced the purchase of Meda and recent acquisition of Renaissance. UBS loves the company’s very attractive valuation, and trading at just over nine times estimated 2016 earnings per share, it clearly is cheap.
UBS has set a $50 price target, nearly the same as the consensus target of $50.89. The shares closed Thursday at $37.38.
United Technologies
This is a very diversified company with large government contract exposure, and it is also on the UBS Equity Focus List. United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) is an industrial that provides high-technology products and services to aerospace industries and building systems worldwide. Its segments are UTC Climate, Otis, Controls & Security, UTC Aerospace Systems, and Pratt & Whitney.
Many Wall Street analysts believe the company is strategically positioned to benefit from two megatrends in the long-term: urbanization and commercial aerospace. The company received good news recently as the military and foreign buyers are set to increase purchase of the F-135 Jets. UTC’s Pratt & Whitney division, which builds the F135 engine for the military, earns a superb 22.5% profit margin on its products.
The UBS team noted this when the company released 2017 guidance:
United Technologies guided 2017 mostly in line with expectations with earnings-per-share at $6.30-6.60 including $0.14 contingency at midpoint with 90-100% free-cash-flow conversion. Operations below our forecast offset by lower 27% tax rate. Organic revenue guidance at 2-4% while we estimate segment margin guided ~40 baisi points lower year-over-year at midpoint. The company mostly maintained its 2020 targets that call for accelerating revenue growth with margin expansion, reducing Otis/CCS slightly.
Investors receive a 2.39% dividend. The UBS price target is $123. The consensus target is $115.21, and the stock closed Thursday at $110.55.
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All these top companies are solid ideas for investors looking to maintain equity weightings, but want to avoid companies that are expensive. All make good sense for growth portfolios with some risk tolerance.
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