Live: Qualcomm (QCOM) Sinks After Announcing Earnings

• “AI is redefining the mobile industry… personal AI devices are emerging and transforming user experiences independently of smartphones.”
  – Cristiano Amon, CEO
  (Visionary, long-term growth driver across multiple form factors.)

• “Our non-Apple QCT revenues have grown over 15% annually for two consecutive years, and we expect this momentum to continue.”
  – Akash Palkhiwala, CFO
  (Confidence in diversification strategy despite Apple share decline.)

• “Data center entry is a logical extension of our IP leadership… inference efficiency, measured in tokens per dollar and tokens per watt, is where Qualcomm can win.”
  – Cristiano Amon
  (Signals focus on AI inference acceleration, carving a niche in hyperscaler workloads.)

• “Our multiyear deal with Xiaomi will power multiple generations of flagship devices with increasing volumes every year.”
  – Akash Palkhiwala
  (Strengthening position in China and globally amid Apple/Samsung dynamics.)

• “We have managed near-30% QCT margins even with Apple share declines, and growth in Auto and IoT will sustain our profitability profile.”
  – Akash Palkhiwala
  (Reassuring investors on margin resilience and long-term model.)

• AI-Driven Growth Across Devices

  • AI smartphone adoption is accelerating, particularly in Android ecosystems (Galaxy AI usage up 70%; Gemini AI use tripled).

  • Qualcomm is positioning Snapdragon as the “AI platform of choice” for handsets, PCs, XR, and wearables.

  • Executives expect AI to fuel device upgrade cycles and boost Android’s market share vs. Apple.

• Diversification Beyond Handsets

  • Automotive (+21% YoY) and IoT (+24% YoY) remain strong growth pillars.

  • Qualcomm reiterated its target of $22B combined Automotive + IoT revenues by FY2029, with automotive ADAS launches (BMW, 20 OEM programs) as key contributors.

  • Strength in industrial IoT solutions (Dragon Wing, Dragon Link) broadens enterprise AI footprint.

• Entry into Data Center Market

  • Acquisition of Alphawave adds high-speed interconnect IP for AI-focused custom SoCs.

  • Advanced discussions underway with at least one leading hyperscaler for inference clusters.

  • First meaningful data center revenue contributions expected by FY2028.

• Handset Market Dynamics and OEM Relationships

  • Non-Apple handset revenue grew 7% YoY despite seasonal weakness.

  • Xiaomi multiyear agreement solidifies China presence; volumes expected to increase annually.

  • Samsung baseline share assumed at 75% for Galaxy S series, with upside potential if Qualcomm outcompetes in-house Exynos chips.

• Margin and Capital Discipline

  • QCT margins at ~30% despite Apple share losses.

  • Long-term margin guidance unchanged as mix shifts to higher-value Android, Auto, IoT.

  • $3.8B capital returned to shareholders this quarter; commitment to return 100% FCF for FY25.

We’re on Qualcomm’s conference call and will post any highlights. They’ll automatically post if you keep this blog open.

It is worth noting that the midpoint of Qualcomm’s guidance was $10.7 billion, which was above Wall Street expectations. Guidance for earnings of $2.85 also exceeded Wall Street targets of $2.82.

The company joins stocks like NXP and Texas Instruments that have significant automotive revenue and fell after earnigns after delivering results that were moderately above expectations.

Well, its deja vu for Qualcomm investors. The company’s Q2 earnings are very similar to what happened when the company reported its first quarter.

That’s an especially tough pill to swallow as both Meta and Microsoft delivered blowout earnings that will propel semiconductor stocks forward tomorrow. It’s a big party in the semiconductor space, but Qualcomm is largely missing out.

Qualcomm provided guidance for Q4 FY25, expecting revenues between $10.3 billion and $11.1 billion and non-GAAP EPS between $2.75 and $2.95.

Qualcomm reported its fiscal third quarter 2025 results, with total revenues reaching $10.4 billion, a 10% increase from the same period last year.

The company achieved a non-GAAP EPS of $2.77, surpassing the estimated EPS of $2.17.

Notably, Qualcomm’s QCT segment, which includes automotive and IoT, saw a 23% year-over-year revenue growth, highlighting the success of its diversification strategy.

The company returned $3.8 billion to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases.

CEO Cristiano Amon emphasized Qualcomm’s leadership in AI processing and connectivity as key drivers for future growth. The company remains on track with its accelerated buyback commitment for FY25.

• Revenue: $10.365 billion (Expectations of $10.35 billion)
• Adjusted EPS: $2.77 (Expectations of $2.71)

Shares are immediately down 4.5%.

Get your popcorn ready, because Qualcomm earnings should hit very shortly after the 4 p.m. bell. As one final reminder, all you have to do is leave this page open and updates will automatically appear. We expect to provide 5 to 10 updates with news and analysis in the half hour after Qualcomm’s report.

If you just went to Google and saw Qualcomm shares were falling, there’s no need for alarm.

At around 3 p.m., Jerome Powell said there has been no decision made on cutting rates at the September meeting. Immediately after the comment, Treasury yields jumped 6 basis points and stocks fell.

Point being: This is a broader market sell-off and nothing related to Qualcomm’s upcoming report after the bell.

Its broadly been a good day for semiconductor stocks. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (Nasadq: SOXX) is up 1.13% at 1:50 p.m. ET.

Unfortunately, Qualcomm hasn’t benefited from the rising tide. Shares are down .59%. However, its worth noting shares of the company have risen .8% since hitting an intraday bottom at 11:35 a.m. ET.

Jerome Powell is holding a press conference at 2:30 to discuss the Federal Open Market Committee’s July interest-rate decision.

Betting markets are placing a 99% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, but commentary from Powell and other details will be important. There’s a chance that multiple Fed governors will vote against keeping rates locked.

The big picture: even without a rate cut, there could be significant volatility late in the trading day. If Qualcomm shares are moving, it’s likely unrelated to traders making earnings bets and more related to big money movements after Powell’s press conference.

Earlier, we looked back at Qualcomm’s first-quarter earnings and why they disappointed (primarily weak guidance). Let’s take a look at the key figures to watch for when Qualcomm reports tonight.

Wall Street Consensus For Qualcomm’s Q2 Earnings

• Revenue: $10.35 billion
• Adjusted EPS: $2.71
• Free Cash Flow: $3.4 billion

As we detailed earlier, Qualcomm fell last quarter mostly because of its guidance. With that being said, you’ll want to know what Wall Street expects the company to guide to in Q3:

Wall Street Consensus For Qualcomm’s Q3 Guidance

• Revenue: $10.61 billion
• Adjusted EPS: $2.82