Goldman Sachs Initiates Qualcomm at Neutral With a $135 Price Target

Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM | QCOM Price Prediction) has had a difficult stretch heading into spring 2026. Shares are flat over the past week but down 9% over the past month and have fallen 25.81% year to date. Over the past year, shares are down 16.45%, a sharp retreat from an all-time 52-week high of $205.95.

Most Wall Street analysts maintain more moderate outlooks, with the Street consensus target at $155.67. Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $135 price target — offering just 4% upside from the initiation price and sitting well below the broader analyst consensus. But can QCOM realistically reach $135 by end of 2026?

Goldman Sachs’s $135 QCOM Prediction

Schneider argues that Qualcomm’s diversification into adjacent markets including automotive, PCs, and data centers is real, but gains will be partly offset by share loss at key smartphone customer accounts like Apple. The data supports caution: while non-Apple QCT revenues grew 18% year over year in fiscal 2025, the stock has shed significant ground as the market prices in the Apple headwind. With 23 analyst Hold ratings versus 13 Buy ratings and just 1 Sell, Goldman’s Neutral stance aligns with a Street that is broadly cautious despite lingering upside targets.

Key Drivers of QCOM Stock Performance

1. Automotive compounding: Qualcomm’s automotive segment posted $1.101 billion in Q1 FY2026, up 15% year over year — its second consecutive quarter above $1 billion. This represents a durable, multi-year revenue stream tied to the global EV and ADAS buildout, with a trajectory growing from $959 million in Q2 FY2025 onward.
2. Data center expansion: Qualcomm completed the acquisition of Alphawave Semi and established a new Data Center segment in Q1 FY2026, positioning the company to participate in infrastructure spending that has driven outsized returns across semiconductors and opening a compounding growth lane outside handsets.
3. Capital returns: Qualcomm returned $12.596 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2025 through dividends and buybacks. The quarterly dividend stands at $0.89 per share, and the company repurchased 15 million shares for $2.6 billion in Q1 FY2026 alone — a meaningful benefit for long-term holders.

What Will It Take for QCOM to Reach $135?

With 1.067 billion shares outstanding and a market cap of around $136 billion, the stock is already trading near Goldman’s target. Reaching $135 will require Qualcomm to stabilize handset revenues amid industry-wide memory supply constraints, demonstrate continued automotive and IoT momentum, and show the Alphawave data center bet is gaining traction. CEO Cristiano Amon has stated the company remains “on track to achieve our fiscal 2029 revenue goals.”

The Primary Risk

Apple share loss represents a structural headwind to Qualcomm’s fundamentals that diversification revenue will need time to absorb. Goldman’s $135 target reflects fair value at the time of initiation, while the automotive and data center buildout provides a credible longer-term growth path beyond the handset segment.