Rivian Shares Collapse 91%

By Douglas A. McIntyre Published Nov 10, 9:10AM EST

Quick Read

The share price of Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is almost 91% lower than its peak.
The EV maker continues to struggle, and its prospects are dim.

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Rivian Shares Collapse 91% — © Rivian R1T - 2nd Row 03 (CC BY-SA 4.0) by Curlyrnd

After Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) went public four years ago, at $78 a share to raise $12 billion, the stock soared to $170 per share. This year, though, it has not traded above $15. The current price of $13.35 represents a decline of over 90% from its peak. In exchange for this significant destruction of wealth and billions of dollars in losses, founder and CEO R.J. Scaringe has been awarded a compensation package that could be worth as much as $4.6 billion over 10 years.

The best thing about the package is the comment in the SEC filing that “the lack of incentive provided by the 2021 CEO Performance Award due to the unlikeliness of attainment of the associated performance goals” was the reason for the change. In other words, Scaringe has missed his previous pay targets so severely that they had to be replaced with easier ones.

A Dog

Rivian is a dog of a company. In the third quarter, it produced only 10,720 vehicles and sold 13,201. Revenue rose 78% year over year to $1.56 billion. However, it is more instructive to examine the preceding quarter, in which revenue was $1.30 billion. With the September 30 expiration of the federal $7,500 tax credit, Rivian’s revenue should have surged month over month as people rushed to get the incentive. They did not, as far as Rivian was concerned.

Rivian also lost $1.16 billion in the third quarter compared to a loss of $1.10 billion in the year-ago period. Through three quarters of 2025, Rivian has lost $2.82 billion.

Rivian is betting its future on a new vehicle with a price well below its current ones. The company will release its R2 in the first half of next year. This SUV will have a base price of $45,000. The current models are the R1S SUV and R1T pickup. The former is priced from $77,000 to $121,000, and the latter from $71,000 to $115,000.

Scaringe is dragging Rivian into what may be the most competitive segment of the electric vehicle (EV) market. Based on sales volume in this sector, it is nearly impossible to succeed in terms of competition. These include, at least, the Tesla Model Y, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, and GM’s Blazer EV. To illustrate the difficulty of this part of the market, note that Ford is offering 0% APR financing for 72 months for the Mustang Mach-E.

The R2 does not have a chance. Aside from taking the company public, the new SUV will be Scaringe’s greatest mistake. Rivian shares have further to fall.

Rivian Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025–2030

About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.