Rivian Shares Surge 19%

It is one of the stock market’s little mysteries. Shares of troubled and small electric vehicle (EV) company Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN | RIVN Price Prediction) are up 19% in the past month. Because of heavy competition and the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit at the end of this month, the stock should be headed the other way.

Rivian has actually had a good year overall. Shares are up 16%, while the S&P 500 is 13% higher. However, going back five years, the chart is ugly. Rivian is 87% lower, while the S&P 500 is up 41%.

Rivian did announce it would build a $4 billion plant in Georgia. The move is a huge risk. The facility will not open until 2028. By that time, competitors will have had more than two years to advance sales, and perhaps build vehicles that compete directly with Rivian’s. However, one reason for the extra manufacturing is to build Rivian’s new, inexpensive R3 crossover. One criticism of Rivian is that the base price of its vehicles is $70,000. Some are closer to $100,000. The EV industry is trying to bring down prices to better compete with combustion-powered cars. With the $7,500 credit ending, that will be even harder.

CEO R.J. Scaringe said, “R3 represents a real big market unlock for us. It gets you into that category of purchases and prices that’s meaningfully below the average.” However, the segment is already crowded by vehicles like Ford’s Mustang Mach-E, which is already priced below $40,000.

The news will not chase away doubters. Rivian may deliver as few as 40,000 vehicles this year. In the June quarter, deliveries were just above 10,000. Revenue in the most recent quarter barely moved from $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion year over year. Rivian lost $1.2 billion in the period, compared to $1.4 billion last year. The company continues to bleed cash.

Rivian did receive an investment from Volkswagen that could total $5.8 billion over time. However, that is not what is driving the stock today, as the deal was announced in November 2024.

There is no reason for Rivian stock to rise, but that is what makes Wall Street a horse race.

Rivian Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030