XRP at $1.88: Gemini Data Shows 73% of Users Expect Sub-$2 Prices Through Year-End

A recent Gemini XRP poll (December 12-23, 2025) shows a striking consensus: 73% of respondents now predict XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) will finish 2025 between $1.50 and $2.00. This crowd-driven XRP price prediction for December 2025 implies a very muted year-end for the coin, given XRP’s current level around $1.88.

Just a few weeks ago, traders were more bullish—about 38% expected XRP to rally to $2.00-$2.50 by December 31, but that figure has since plunged to 28%. Above $2.50, confidence is almost nil: roughly 4% of voters foresee XRP reaching $2.50-$3.00, and only about 4% expect it to exceed $3.00. The question is: What killed the hope of a year-end breakout?

Inside the Gemini User Poll: 73% Consensus on $1.50-$2.00 Range

Gemini’s prediction market (launched December 12, 2025) continually tracks users’ expectations for XRP’s closing price on December 31 using the GRR-KAIKO_XRPUSD_8UTC index. Its latest tally shows overwhelming support for the $1.50-$2.00 range—a conservative outcome. Here’s the breakdown:

$1.50-$2.00: 73% probability (majority consensus)

This share has been rising—Gemini reported 63% earlier in the poll, up to 73% by December 23. The crowd is consolidating around this range as the most likely outcome.

$2.00-$2.50: 28% probability (down from 38%)

Only 28% of voters now expect XRP to exceed $2.00, compared with 38% at the start of the poll. The 10-point drop in just two weeks shows rapidly fading optimism.

$2.50-$3.00: 4% probability (dropped from 5%)

Very few users foresee a rally into the mid-$2s. This near-zero confidence reflects multiple failed attempts to break resistance.

Above $3.00: 4% probability

Roughly 4% of respondents still think XRP could exceed $3.00, though that has also fallen in recent days. These are the die-hard bulls.

Below $1.50: 7% probability (up from 6%)

Even a sharp sell-off is considered unlikely by most, though the share expecting that outcome has risen slightly to about 7%.

These odds paint a very modest XRP year-end forecast. With only six days left until December 31, most Gemini users have given up on any late-year breakout above $2.00.

Why XRP Sentiment Turned Bearish: Four Key Factors

Traders have seen multiple rejections at the $2 barrier—shallow holiday liquidity and profit-taking by large holders—leaving little faith in a surge above $2.00 this month.

$2.00 Resistance Holds After November Support Breaks

XRP repeatedly failed to break above $2.00 in mid-December. Between December 15-25, it traded in the $1.86-$1.92 range, consolidating rather than rallying. This showed that the old $2 psychological floor—which held as support in November—flipped into a ceiling. Every time XRP approaches $2, sellers step in.

Wider Crypto Weakness Weighs on Altcoins

The entire crypto market paused. Bitcoin fell approximately 30% from its October peak—from $126,000 to $90,000—and traders have been rotating capital into Bitcoin (buoyed by strong ETF inflows) and away from altcoins like XRP. In short, macro risk-off dynamics—investors fleeing risky assets as bond yields rise—weighed on speculative tokens.

ETF Inflows Insufficient to Overcome Sell Pressure

U.S. XRP spot-ETF products have attracted roughly $1.1 billion in inflows since mid-November. However, that sum is less than 1% of XRP’s $113 billion market capitalization. In practice, steady ETF buying has so far been insufficient to overcome ongoing deleveraging—traders closing leveraged positions.

Futures data show that aggressive sell orders predominate. Slow XRP ETF accumulation of $30-50 million daily can’t keep pace with profit-taking and risk reduction, hitting the market with hundreds of millions in selling pressure.

Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders Creates Supply Ceiling

On-chain data show that substantial realized gains have been locked in as XRP approached recent highs. For example, a long-held address that accumulated years ago around $0.40 sold over 350 million XRP at approximately $2.00, yielding roughly $721 million in profit. In fact, network-wide realized profit has surged 240% in recent weeks.

With many early buyers now cashing out at the $2 level, there’s been scant dip-buying support to lift the price. When supply hits the market from long-term holders who bought at $0.40-$0.60, it creates a ceiling that’s hard to break without massive new demand.

What Could Break the $2 Ceiling Before Year-End?

For XRP to rally above $2.00 in the final days, a significant catalyst would be needed. Here are four scenarios that could flip sentiment.

ETF or Institutional News Sparks Buying

A surprise announcement—a new XRP ETF from a major issuer or a major asset manager like BlackRock listing XRP—could spark buying. To date, only existing XRP ETF flows of $1.1 billion are known. A BlackRock XRP ETF filing or approval might change the picture dramatically, but none is confirmed. Given BlackRock manages over $10 trillion, even speculation about their entry could move markets.

RLUSD Milestone Boosts Ecosystem Confidence

Ripple’s U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin RLUSD has crossed a $1.26 billion market cap. That milestone highlights Ripple’s growing ecosystem. If RLUSD continues to surge—backed by on-chain demand and bank partnerships using it for settlement—it could boost confidence in the XRP ledger infrastructure, potentially spilling over into XRP itself as banks realize they need XRP to bridge currencies when using RLUSD.

Short Squeeze Amplifies Rally Above $2.00

Traders note significant short positions clustered just above $2.00. In theory, a sudden uptick in buying could force short sellers to cover—buying XRP to close their positions—accelerating a rally above $2.00. Analysts have identified roughly $4.5 million of short exposure between $2.18-$2.37. If XRP were to poke above those levels even briefly, a short squeeze could amplify gains as shorts scramble to exit.

Year-End Rebalancing Drives Modest Buying

Once tax-loss selling winds down after Christmas, some investors rotate new capital into the market. Historically, holiday trading is thin, which means even modest buying—by crypto funds or new inflows from bonuses and year-end allocations—can move the price. If flow increases in the last few trading days, XRP could edge up toward $2.10-$2.20.

Each of these scenarios faces long odds with only a week left. But they show how XRP could defy the poll. In the absence of such catalysts, however, the poll’s consensus remains the safer assumption.

Are Gemini Users Right? Crowd Wisdom vs. Recency Bias

Gemini’s crowd-based XRP year-end forecast likely captures the prevailing mood, but it’s not foolproof. Prediction markets often benefit from the “wisdom of crowds” in the near term—when thousands of traders vote with real money, their collective judgment tends to be accurate for short-term outcomes. Here, users are overwhelmingly bearish. If the price stays range-bound, their consensus will indeed prove accurate.

However, crowds are also prone to recency bias—the poll reflects traders’ reactions to the recent drop below $2.00 and the subdued market. Historically, XRP has shown that fortunes can change quickly. Recall how it surged from roughly $0.43 in late 2024 to a July 2025 peak near $3.66—a 751% gain—when bullish catalysts hit.

With only six days until the December 31 cutoff, anything could happen. A single big trade or piece of news could tilt the outcome. The Gemini poll is a useful snapshot of current XRP sentiment, but XRP’s price action has surprised many times.