Live Netflix (NFLX) Q4 Earnings: Will 2026 Fuel a Turnaround?
Quick Read
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Netflix (NFLX) reports Q4 2025 earnings today after a 30% decline from highs and a 16% EPS miss last quarter.
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Netflix announced an $83B all-cash acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery after rejecting a rival Paramount bid.
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Netflix’s password sharing crackdown tailwind is fading. Ad-supported tier and international expansion are the focus for sustainable growth.
Live Updates
Netflix Earnings Interview Starts in 10 Minutes
Netflix’s earnings interview starts in 10 minutes. We’ve embedded it above if you’d like to watch.
Here's What Netflix Had to Say About its Warner Bros. Acquisition
The big story in 2026 will be Netflix’s Warner Bros. acquisition. Here’s what the company had to say about it:
In December, we announced that we’ll acquire Warner Bros., including its film and television studios, HBO Max and HBO. As announced earlier today, we and WBD amended our merger agreement, which now provides for an all-cash transaction valued at $27.75 per WBD share, replacing the previous mix of cash and Netflix stock. The revised transaction structure expedites the timeline to a WBD shareholder vote and provides greater certainty of value that will be delivered at closing.
We believe our proposed purchase of Warner Bros. will allow us to accelerate our business strategy. Together, we see two main areas of opportunity. First, Warner Bros.’ library, development and IP will allow us to provide an even broader and higher-quality selection of content for members; and, second, the addition of HBO Max will allow us to offer more personalized and flexible subscription options, better meeting the diverse preferences of our global audience. Netflix and Warner Bros. are highly complementary businesses and together we’ll be able to offer more opportunities to creators and strengthen the entire entertainment industry. This will allow us to offer more choice and greater value to consumers. Additionally, we’ll expand production capacity in the US and abroad and grow investment in original content over the long-term, which will create jobs and help sustain a healthy entertainment industry.
Netflix Shares Down 3.6%
Netflix’s losing streak continues. Headed into earnings, shares were down 29% across the past six months. They’re down another 3.6% after-hours as investors digest their earnings.
While Netflix exceeded revenue and EPS targets last quarter, its Q1 guide is below expectations in both revenues and EPS.
Looking ahead to 2026, revenue guidance exceeds Wall Street’s expectations at th emidpoint. However, operating margin guidance is lower than Wall Street’s expectations and free cash flow guidance of $11 billion came in below Capital IQ’s estimate of $12.2 billion.
The story of 2026 will be Netflix’s pending Warner Bros deal. Netflix made an all cash offer, and announced they’ll pause buybacks to accumulate more cash in anticipation of the deal being approved.
Overall, Netflix continues to be under pressure and today’s disappointing guidance will likely be the main story Wall Street focuses on tomorrow.
Netflix's Q4 Earnings Highlights
NFLX | Netflix Q4’25 Earnings Highlights:
- Adj. EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.55) [✅]; [UP] +30% YoY
- Revenue: $12.05B (Est. $11.95B) [✅]; [UP] +18% YoY
- Adj. Gross Margin: 24.5% (Est. 24.0%) [✅]; [UP] +200 bps YoY
- Operating Income: $2.96B; [UP] +30% YoY
- Free Cash Flow: $1.87B; [UP] +36% YoY
- Effective Tax Rate: 12.6% (vs. 11.4% YoY)
Q1’26 Outlook:
- Revenue: $12.16B ±2% (Est. $12.19B) [✅]
- Revenue growth is expected to be driven by continued membership growth and increased pricing.
- Ad revenue is projected to roughly double compared to 2025, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth.
Q4 Segment Performance:
- UCAN Revenue: $5.34B [✅]; [UP] +18% YoY
- EMEA Revenue: $3.87B [✅]; [UP] +18% YoY
- LATAM Revenue: $1.42B [✅]; [UP] +15% YoY
- APAC Revenue: $1.42B [✅]; [UP] +17% YoY
Other Key Q4 Metrics:
- Adj. Operating Income: $3.91B (Est. $3.85B) [✅]; [UP] +16% YoY
- Adj. Operating Expenses: $8.09B (Est. $8.00B) [✅]; [UP] +15% YoY
- R&D Expenses: $890.3M; [UP] +14% YoY
- Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities: $2.11B; [UP] +37% YoY
- Shares Repurchased: 18.9M shares for $2.1B
- Gross Debt: $14.5B
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $9.03B
Other Executives:
- Ted Sarandos, Co-CEO: “The entertainment business remains vibrant and intensely competitive, and we’re optimistic about our future as we continue to innovate and expand our offerings.”
Ad Revenue Stats
Here’s some information on Netflix’s push into ad revenues:
- Overall, the company crossed 325 million paid memberships in Q4.
- Ad revenue exceeded $1.5 billion in 2025, which is 2.5X growth year-over-year.
- Ad revenue is expected to ‘roughly double’ in 2026.
Here's What Wall Street Will Love and Hate from Netflix's Earnings
Netflix earnings were just released and the stock is down about 1% shortly after they hit newswires. Here’s what Wall Street the pros and cons of their Q4 earnigns and guidance.
Pros:
- The company beat on revenue and EPS last quarter while paid memberships crossed 325 million.
- Fiscal 2026 revenue outlook is slightly above Wall Street expectations at the midpoint. Netflix forecasts $51.2 billion at the midpoint while Wall Street expected $50.98 billion in revenue in 2026.
Cons:
- Free Cash Flow guidance of $11 billion in 2026 appears to be below Wall Street’s expectations of $12.2 billion
- Q1 EPS guidance of $.76 is below Wall Street’s expectations and revenue for the quarter also came in light.
Overall, shares are down 3.6% five minutes after the results hit newswires.
Netflix Earnings Are Out!
Netflix just reported earnings.
Revenue: $12.05 versus estimates of $11.97 billion (beat).
EPS: $.56 versus estimates of $.55
Q1 EPS of $.76 versus estimates of $.81.
Full year revenue of $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion versus estimates of $50.98 billion.
Shares are initially down about 1.1% on the news.
Nasdaq Closes Down 2.4%
It was a brutal day across the market today as the Dow dropped nearly 900 points and the Nasdaq closed down 2.4%. Netflix shares closed down about 1.08%.
Updates Will Post Automatically
If you’re just joining this live blog – updates will post automatically. We’ll begin posting analysis the moment Netflix’s earnings hit newswires. Simply stay on this page.
Netflix Earnings Should Hit Right After tthe Bell
We expect Netflix’s earnings will hit the newswires shortly after the bell today. That is to say, you won’t have to wait very long past 4 p.m. ET to know what investors think about Netflix’s Q4 report.
Odds of Netflix Beating Earnings Plummets
Right now Polymarket assigns just a 40% chance Netflix will beat Q4 earnings. At about 3 p.m. ET, the odds were at 85% but have plummeted right before the company reports. It’s an interesting drop, but worth noting that volume is still low in this market with $50,215 bet.
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX | NFLX Price Prediction) reports Q4 2025 earnings after the bell today. After a 6% pullback over the past month and a 30% decline from recent highs, the stock enters this report with lowered expectations and skeptical sentiment. That setup creates opportunity if management delivers on subscriber growth and provides confident 2026 guidance.
Subscriber Growth Remains the Story
Last quarter’s results missed expectations, with EPS of $0.59 falling short of the $0.70 consensus by 16%. (As a note, Netflix split its shares during the quarter so the actual EPS last quarter was $5.87 and expectations were $6.96, but we’ve adjusted for the 10-1 share split).
That marked the first significant miss in two years and sent shares lower even though much of the miss was explained by a one-time tax expense in Brazil. Since then, the company closed a global licensing deal with Sony Pictures and announced a proposed $83 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, shifting to an all-cash structure after rejecting a rival Paramount bid.
Those moves signal Netflix’s commitment to content depth and scale, but they also raise questions about capital allocation and integration risk. The market wants to see that subscriber momentum justifies these investments.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q4 2025 Estimate | YoY Growth | FY 2025 Estimate | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.55 | +28% | $2.54 | 23% |
| Revenue | $12.0B | +17% | $45.1B | +16% |
The 28% EPS growth expectation reflects operating leverage kicking in as subscriber growth outpaces content spending increases. Full-year EPS of $2.54 exceeds 2024’s result by a healthy 23%.
What Matters This Quarter
I’ll be watching three things closely. What commentary will management provide on net additions? The password sharing crackdown delivered a surge in 2024, but that tailwind is fading. Management needs to prove the ad-supported tier and international expansion can drive sustainable growth.
Second, operating margin trajectory matters more than the headline number. Netflix delivered a 28.2% operating margin in Q3. If that expands meaningfully in Q4, it validates the shift toward profitability over pure subscriber count. The market is pricing in margin improvement, not just top-line growth.
Third, 2026 guidance will set the tone. Analysts expect revenue growth to remain in the mid-teens, but any signal that growth is reaccelerating or that the Warner deal accelerates synergies could reset sentiment. Conversely, conservative guidance would confirm concerns that Netflix is entering a slower-growth phase.
You should also watch how management frames the ad-tier contribution. This revenue stream is still emerging, and clarity on adoption rates and average revenue per user would give investors confidence that Netflix has multiple growth levers beyond basic subscriber additions.
This Quarter Resets the Narrative
Netflix trades at a forward P/E of 27, down from over 36 on a trailing basis. That compression reflects skepticism about growth sustainability and deal execution risk. The stock is down 6% year to date while the S&P 500 is flat, showing relative weakness heading into the print.
If Netflix delivers strong subscriber growth, expanding margins, and confident 2026 guidance, I think you’ll see sentiment shift quickly. The valuation has compressed enough that a credible path to sustained double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion would justify a re-rating. But if guidance disappoints or subscriber numbers come in soft, the Warner deal will look more like distraction than strategy, and the stock could test lower levels before finding support.
Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.
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