After soaring in 2023 and 2024, shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) were battered throughout the first half of 2025. The largest U.S. EV-maker staged a comeback in the second half of the year and finishing with a roughly 11% gain. So far this year, TSLA less than 1%, including a gain of 1.51% over the past five trading sessions.
When the company reported Q3 earnings on Oct. 22, 2025, it announced quarterly revenue of $28.1 billion, up 12% year-over-year (YoY). However, earnings of 50 cents per share missed analysts’ estimates of 54 cents per share. Concerningly, quarterly net income fell 37% YoY to $1.37 billion.
After several quarters of weakening momentum, Tesla’s deliveries are seeing a positive break in trend, according to Canaccord. Further, the firm expects Tesla to announce new electric vehicle models soon, which should help its global sales momentum. The new models will help alleviate any post-Q3 “cliff” in the U.S. after EV tax credits go away, Canaccord believes.
Over the past decade, Tesla has suffered incredible losses that have shocked investors who had grown accustomed to the stock’s rapid appreciation over the past decade. The company’s meteoric rise has practically minted millionaires who jumped on the Musk bandwagon in the early goings. That’s certainly a move that’s come with some baggage and volatility along the way. But overall, it’s clear that Musk’s visionary status has rewarded shareholders since Tesla’s IPO on June 29, 2010.
24/7 Wall St. conducted analysis to provide more clarity. Let’s dive into whether Tesla’s troubles this year can be expected to continue, or if this is a top growth name that can rebound to new all-time highs and resume its march higher.
Key Drivers of Tesla’s Stock Performance
1. Core EV Business: Tesla’s most important business line is unsurprisingly the company’s auto business. With sales of the company’s EVs down on a year-over-year basis, and margins also declining from historically high levels following the onset of the pandemic, investors will continue to assess the company’s future prospects in proportion to how the company’s core revenue and earnings driver is performing.
2. Autonomous Driving (FSD), Robotics and More: Tesla’s value can be ascribed to what many long-term investors view as a call option on some other key growth categories CEO Elon Musk continues to work on. Aside from the company’s core electric vehicle offering, Tesla’s energy business, its FSD platform, humanoid robotics endeavors, AI verticals, and other growth categories make this stock unique in terms of the breadth and number of potential catalysts investors can look to for future growth. Of course, the extent to which these endeavors deliver boosted margins (or increased CapEx) remains to be seen.
3. Macro and Political Environment: Like it or not, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has cozied up to president Trump in a big way. This move is one that’s been broadly cheered by the overall market, at least out of the gate. Tesla stock soared following Donald Trump’s election victory, though Tesla has since given up its gains since this pivotal event, and has trended lower for seven straight weeks following the election. We’ll have to see if the Trump administration brings forward the sort of regulatory environment so many investors had hoped for in 2025 and in the years to come.
What Wall Street Thinks
Tesla’s stock price outlook for 2025 varies widely among analysts, reflecting uncertainties in production, market conditions, and EV advancements. Analyst price targets span a very wide range, with the most bearish analyst putting forward a $19.05 price target, and the most bullish suggesting this stock could head to $600 per share. Thus, there’s not really a true idea of where this stock is headed. And when investors think about the fact that many of these analyst projections are outdated, doing the math on where this stock could be headed over the course of the next year isn’t as easy as it seems.
It’s worth noting that analysts remain largely bullish on the stock, though. However, given how Tesla has fallen from its peak, even if the company can hit this target over the next year, it’ll still have a ways to go to make it to a new all-time high. The thing about Tesla and other high-growth stocks is that I find analysts are often chasing the returns these stocks provide. Thus, I think it’s best for most investors to steer clear of using analyst price targets as anything other than guardrails. Indeed, Tesla is one company I think is worth doing one’s own DCF analysis on and coming to one’s own price target.
However, institutional ownership of Tesla remains light. As of Dec. 8, 2025, just 47.62% of the company’s float is held by institutional owners, with 120 of them having entirely liquidated their positions over the past year.
Tesla’s 2026 Outlook
As was the case last year, analysts’ opinions on where Tesla could be headed in 2026 vary. Overall, Tesla’s stock performance in 2025 is expected to be shaped by production output, market trends and advancements in EV and battery technology. Tesla’s 2025 deliveries, which were forecast at 1.95 million units by Barclays and 2.08 million by Bloomberg, disappointed last year. Tesla reported 418,227 deliveries in Q4 2025 and 1,636,129 for 2025. Year over year, those figures are down 16% and 9%, respectively. Tesla was affected by the expiration of the U.S. electric vehicle tax credit in 2025 as well as increased competition in Europe. Morningstar forecasts that deliveries will continue to decrease through the first three quarters of 2026.
Musk remains optimistic, expecting a 20% to 30% delivery increase in the year to come. Additionally, competition from Waymo and declining registrations in Germany, France and California present challenges. Tesla’s push into AI and autonomous driving, including plans for a Robotaxi launch, could be a game-changer, but the company recently saw its share of the EV market slip below 50% in California.
Tesla Stock 2026 Price Target
Wall Street analysts have assigned TSLA a median one-year price target of $398.38, or 8.46% potential downside from today’s price. Of the 25 analysts covering Tesla, the stock currently receives a consensus “Hold” rating, with 10 analysts rating it a “Buy,” eight rating it a “Hold” and seven rating it a “Sell.”
24/7 Wall St.‘s 2026 year-end price target for Tesla is more bullish at $461.73, which represents potential upside of just 6.09% from the current share price.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks