Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA | MRNA Price Prediction) reported fourth-quarter results Friday morning that beat Wall Street’s muted expectations, delivering revenue of $678 million against estimates of $663 million and a loss of $2.11 per share compared to the expected loss of $2.64. The biotech’s shares had climbed 36% year-to-date through February 12 as investors anticipated signs of stabilization in the company’s post-pandemic business model.
The quarter’s performance reflects both progress and persistent challenges. While Moderna narrowed its quarterly loss by 26% year-over-year and exceeded revenue projections, total sales declined 29% from $966 million in the prior-year period as COVID-19 vaccine demand continued its structural decline.
Cost Discipline Delivers Results
The most significant achievement in the quarter was operational efficiency. Moderna slashed annual operating expenses by approximately $2.2 billion, significantly exceeding its cost-reduction targets. Fourth-quarter R&D spending dropped 31% to $775 million as Phase 3 respiratory programs wound down, demonstrating management’s commitment to preserving cash as the company transitions away from pandemic-era revenue levels.
CEO Stéphane Bancel emphasized the operational pivot: “In 2025, we sharpened our commercial execution, launched our third product and brought online three international manufacturing sites, while advancing our mRNA pipeline. At the same time, we lowered our annual operating expenses by approximately $2.2 billion, significantly surpassing our cost-reduction targets.”
For full-year 2025, Moderna posted revenue of $1.94 billion, down 40% from $3.24 billion in 2024, while reducing its net loss to $2.82 billion from $3.56 billion.
International Expansion Offsets Domestic Weakness
Geography tells the story of Moderna’s strategic shift. International product sales of $381 million exceeded U.S. sales of $264 million in the quarter, reflecting management’s focus on markets with more favorable vaccine adoption dynamics.
The company secured meaningful international partnerships during the quarter, including a five-year agreement with Mexico’s government covering up to 10 million COVID-19 vaccine doses and technology transfer arrangements. Canada and Australia approved Moderna’s next-generation COVID vaccine mNEXSPIKE, while the UK authorized a strain-updated version of Spikevax for its spring vaccination campaign.
Bancel noted the company is “poised to deliver up to 10% revenue growth through mNEXSPIKE expansion and our international strategic partnerships” in 2026, despite acknowledging a “continued challenging environment in the U.S.”
FDA Setback Clouds Near-Term Outlook
The quarter’s results arrived alongside a regulatory disappointment. On February 10, the FDA issued a Refusal-to-File letter for Moderna’s standalone seasonal influenza vaccine (mRNA-1010), citing inadequate comparator vaccine selection in Phase 3 trials. The agency explicitly stated no safety or efficacy concerns were identified, but the rejection delays potential U.S. market entry for a product viewed as critical to diversification beyond COVID vaccines.
Shares dropped 8% on the FDA news, though the company maintained the setback would not impact its 2026 financial guidance. The flu vaccine remains under review in Europe, Canada, and Australia, preserving international revenue potential even as the U.S. pathway requires reworking.
2026 Guidance: Modest Growth, Continued Losses
Management projected revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026, implying approximately $2.13 billion in sales with a roughly 50/50 split between U.S. and international markets. Operating expense guidance suggests continued discipline: cost of sales around $900 million, R&D expenses of approximately $3 billion, and SG&A of roughly $1 billion.
The company expects to end 2026 with $5.5 billion to $6 billion in cash, excluding potential additional draws on its credit facility. Moderna held $8.1 billion in cash and investments at year-end 2025 after drawing $600 million from its credit facility, underscoring the cash burn inherent in funding a broad pipeline while revenue remains constrained.
Pipeline Progress Beyond Respiratory Vaccines
Moderna’s oncology programs provided encouraging signals. Five-year data from its melanoma vaccine candidate showed a 49% reduction in risk of recurrence or death, reinforcing the potential of personalized cancer vaccines developed in partnership with Merck. The company is advancing eight Phase 2/3 trials across multiple tumor types for its intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157) candidate.
In rare diseases, Moderna’s propionic acidemia therapeutic (mRNA-3927) entered a registrational study with a 2026 data readout expected, while its methylmalonic acidemia candidate (mRNA-3705) was selected for the FDA’s START pilot program. A collaboration with Recordati announced in late January provides commercialization support and milestone payments for the propionic acidemia program.
The norovirus vaccine candidate (mRNA-1403) completed Phase 3 enrollment with results anticipated in 2026, representing another potential commercial product to diversify revenue streams.
Valuation and Investor Considerations
At a market capitalization of $15.67 billion, Moderna trades at 7x trailing sales despite ongoing losses. The stock’s 31% gain over the past year reflects investor optimism about the pipeline, but the company faces a critical transition period as it attempts to prove its mRNA platform can generate sustainable revenue beyond COVID vaccines.
Wall Street remains divided. Analysts maintain a consensus price target of $38.40, near current levels, with 18 Hold ratings, three Buy ratings, and three Sell ratings. Bank of America Securities reiterated a Sell rating with a $27 price target on February 10, citing revenue declines and continued losses.
Bottom Line
Moderna’s fourth-quarter results demonstrate management’s ability to control costs and stabilize operations as pandemic-era tailwinds fade. The company beat lowered expectations and established a foundation for modest 2026 growth through international expansion and next-generation products. However, the FDA’s rejection of its flu vaccine, ongoing cash consumption, and reliance on unproven pipeline assets to drive future growth present meaningful execution risks. Investors should view the quarter as evidence of competent crisis management rather than a fundamental business inflection, with the next 12 to 18 months critical for determining whether Moderna can transition from a COVID vaccine company to a diversified mRNA therapeutics platform.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks