Wall Street is about to let you put your money where your political predictions are. Roundhill Investments has filed prospectuses for ETFs tied directly to prediction markets on who wins the 2028 presidential election, plus the House and Senate. It’s a groundbreaking development that blurs the line between investing and political betting.
The Roundhill Political Prediction ETFs
Roundhill has filed for a suite of politically focused ETFs tracking prediction market outcomes. The lineup includes the PredictionShares Democratic President Wins 2028 Election ETF and PredictionShares Republican President Wins 2028 Election ETF, plus versions covering Senate and House control.
These ETFs track prediction market prices from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. If the market assigns 60% odds to Republicans winning the presidency, the Republican ETF trades at roughly $0.60. Prices fluctuate as debates happen and polls shift, ultimately resolving to $1.00 or $0.00 based on the actual outcome.
Retail investors can now access political prediction markets through a standard brokerage account, without navigating crypto wallets or decentralized platforms. It’s as simple as buying the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY | SPY Price Prediction).
The 2028 presidential election market on Polymarket already has $21.6 million in liquidity and over $300 million in all-time trading volume, despite the election being years away. That’s the addressable market Roundhill is targeting.
The Competition Joins the Race
GraniteShares and Bitwise have also filed for similar political prediction market products. When multiple asset managers simultaneously file for the same novel product category, it’s pretty clear we’re about to see a flood. We saw hundreds of leveraged ETFs spring up in 2024 and 2025, giving investors ways to bet on popular stocks such as the GraniteShares 2X Long NVDA Daily ETF (Nasdaq: NVDL).
That ETF has $4.5 billion in assets under management, so you can see the kinds of revenue popular ETFs deliver in new verticals.
Prediction markets exploded during the 2024 election cycle, with Polymarket and Kalshi seeing unprecedented volume as retail traders discovered real-money political betting. ETF managers watched that volume and moved to democratize access further.
Roundhill CEO Dave Mazza has stated that prediction markets are “not a zero-sum game” and that companies can develop prediction-style products while maintaining advantages in user experience and regulatory positioning. Roundhill has a track record here: it launched Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (NYSEARCA:BETZ) in June 2020 and reached $1 billion in assets under management by May 2024.
The Opportunity and the Risks
Potential use cases include hedging political risk in a portfolio, speculating on outcomes, and diversification since political results are largely uncorrelated with traditional markets.
Risks are substantial. Regulatory uncertainty tops the list, as the SEC may push back on politically tied products amid manipulation concerns. These are binary, winner-take-all outcomes. The 2028 time horizon is long, and early liquidity could be thin.
The Bigger Picture for ETF Innovation
This could extend well beyond politics. Prediction market ETFs might eventually cover sports championships, economic events, or corporate outcomes. The pattern mirrors the crypto ETF playbook: once bitcoin ETFs were approved, the floodgates opened. Kalshi and Polymarket partnerships are becoming mainstream financial products, and the ETF wrapper makes them accessible to anyone with a brokerage account.
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