Gas Prices Could Set New All-Time High By the End of March

Americans filling up at the pump are about to get a rude awakening. We’ve been publishing all day on how bad oil prices could get, and oil futures just opened up to a historic jump.

Widely followed WTI crude oil futures have surged from $72 per barrel at the start of last week to $108 per barrel tonight. That’s especially notable because they closed at $90.90 on Friday. The big picture for consumers: pain at the pump is about to get extreme in the coming weeks. 

Let’s look at how painful this could get.

Gas Prices Could Set a New Record

The national average for regular gas currently sits at $3.45 per gallon, according to AAA as of March 8, 2026.

That number is about to look like a distant memory. The primary driver is the Iran conflict and the threat to supply flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints.

We’re tracking the situation live on 24/7 Wall St, and you can follow along here.

But here’s what’s happening.

• Oil futures don’t begin trading until 6 p.m. ET on Sunday. When they opened tonight, they were up 18%. WTI Futures now trade for about $108 per barrel.
• That’s a massive jump from Friday, about 18%.
• This jump – if it holds into tomorrow – is going to cause a massive stock market sell-off.
• However, a larger issue for many Americans is that rising fuel prices will continue to get worse. The average price per gallon across America was $3.45 as of March 8th. That’s already a 16% jump across the past week. However, what consumers pay at the pump generally lags financial markets. 
• If tonight’s jump in oil prices holds, it will lead to potentially historic gas prices in the coming week.

The all-time record national average gas price, per AAA, is $5.02 per gallon, set on June 14, 2022. If oil prices hold near current levels, that record is squarely in the crosshairs.

California is already showing us what’s coming: the state average has hit $5.159 per gallon, as detailed in this companion piece on California gas prices.

What’s Next

Consumer sentiment was already fragile heading into this shock. The University of Michigan index sat at just 56.4 in January 2026, dangerously close to recessionary territory. A sustained surge in gas prices is exactly the kind of gut-punch that pushes stressed consumers over the edge.

Another area where high gas prices will have an impact is inflation. Donald Trump is aware that midterms are coming in November, and inflation was a key concern in the last election. If gas prices continue skyrocketing, it could have a major impact on his decision-making.

Prediction markets were already predicting gas prices would surge by the end of March before tonight’s futures open. It looks like they’re going to be right.

On Polymarket, the odds of national gas prices hitting $4.50 by the end of March are at 64%. Once again, that’s a 30% increase from today’s $3.45 avearage.

Polymarket also now has 36% odds on gas prices hitting $5 by the end of March. The highest gas price on average was $5.02. Put another way, prediction markets now place a 34% chance we will reach the highest prices for gas by the end of the month. 

So, if you’ve gotten comfortable paying $3 per gallon in gas, you might need to get ready for some extreme shock in the coming weeks.