NVDL Surges 5.5% On Monday as NVIDIA and Semiconductor Stocks Rebound

Semiconductor stocks caught a major bid on Monday, with NVIDIA (NVDA) shares rebounding and its leveraged ETFs amplifying the move.

The broader backdrop was anything but calm. WTI crude oil briefly hit $120 per barrel overnight before pulling back to around $100 as of 11:10 AM ET. After markets closed, oil futures took another leg down and now trade for $88.65. That further decline comes after Donald Trump said the Iran War will end ‘very soon.’

The Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) closed at $607.76 on the day, up 1.34%. That’s an especially notable move since Nasdaq futures were down as much as 2.7% last night!

NVDL Surges on Semiconductor Rebound

The GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) surged 5.5% on Monday, March 9, 2026, tracking a strong session for NVIDIA and the broader chip complex. As a 2x leveraged daily product, NVDL is designed to deliver twice the daily return of NVDA, so when NVIDIA moves, NVDL moves harder in the same direction. NVIDIA shares closed up 2.68% today.

Here is how the NVIDIA-linked instruments looked as of Monday’s close:

The inverse products, NVDD and NVDS, gave back ground on the rebound day, as expected. Worth noting: both leveraged short products have been brutal holds over the past year. NVDS is down 69% over the past 12 months, and NVDD has shed 48% over the same period. Daily compounding decay is relentless in leveraged short products, and NVIDIA’s long-term trajectory makes the math particularly punishing.

What’s Next for NVIDIA

Monday’s rebound comes against a backdrop of genuinely strong fundamentals. NVIDIA reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $68.13 billion, up 73% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.62 against a $1.52 consensus estimate. The Data Center segment, the engine of everything, posted $62.31 billion in revenue, up 75% year over year. Networking revenue inside Data Center was the real standout, up 263% year over year to $10.98 billion, driven by the NVLink fabric ramp for GB200 and GB300 systems.

CEO Jensen Huang put it plainly on the earnings call:

“Computing demand is growing exponentially — the agentic AI inflection point has arrived. Grace Blackwell with NVLink is the king of inference today — delivering an order-of-magnitude lower cost per token — and Vera Rubin will extend that leadership even further.”

Q1 FY2027 guidance came in at approximately $78 billion in revenue, with one significant caveat: no Data Center compute revenue from China is assumed in that outlook due to ongoing export restrictions.If China exports do return in volume, NVIDIA could be looking at historic growth for a company of its size this year.

What to Watch: GTC and the Road Ahead

The near-term catalyst calendar for NVIDIA is packed. The company’s GPU Technology Conference (GTC) is approaching, and it historically serves as a major product and roadmap showcase. Announcements around the Vera Rubin platform, agentic AI infrastructure, and enterprise partnerships tend to move the stock in the days surrounding the event.

Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly constructive. 58 analysts carry buy ratings on NVDA, with a consensus price target of $265.18. The stock trades near $182.65 with a P/E of roughly 36x. For longer-term perspective on where the stock could go, my recent piece on whether NVIDIA shares could hit $500 by 2030 is worth reading. It lays out the compounding math and what would need to go right to get there.

Prediction markets are currently split. End-of-March markets show only 53% confidence the stock holds above $180 through month-end. That feels a little low considering the likelihood GTC reveals new catalysts, but any major index sell-off would likely lead NVIDIA shares lower as well.

Monday’s rebound in NVDL and the broader NVIDIA complex is a reminder that in a high-VIX, oil-shocked market, the stocks with the strongest fundamental stories tend to recover first. NVIDIA’s Blackwell ramp, $78 billion in forward guidance, and a packed catalyst calendar give the bulls plenty to work with.