XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) investors have been watching the price sit between $1.35 and $1.45 for over a month now, and the next event that could eventually lift XRP from that range is the upcoming Fed meeting. The Federal Reserve meets on March 17 and 18, with the decision announcement expected at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday the 18th.
Although almost nobody expects a rate cut, as markets have a 92% probability of no rate cuts this time. The part that could actually move XRP is the dot plot, where every FOMC member maps out how many rate cuts they see coming for the rest of the year. Right now, the median dot from the December 2025 meeting shows one cut in 2026.
If that number drops to zero or climbs to two on Wednesday, that’s what will tell which direction the XRP price is headed next.
Why the Dot Plot Matters More Than the Rate Decision for XRP Price
The last time the Fed updated its dot plot was December 2025, and a lot has changed since then. Oil prices have pushed toward $100 a barrel after the US-Israel strikes on Iran, Trump’s 15% global tariffs went into effect on February 24, and core PCE is expected to tick up to 3.1%—further from the Fed’s 2% target.
If enough FOMC members shift their dots toward zero cuts in response, the market will read that as the Fed giving up on easing in 2026. But if they hold at one cut or move to two despite the inflation pressure, it signals they see the spike as temporary and rate relief is still on the table.
Two voting members—Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller—already dissented at the January meeting and voted for a 25-basis-point cut, so the push to ease isn’t just talk. If even one more member moves that way on the March dot plot, the median shifts to two cuts for 2026, and that would be the most bullish signal the crypto market has gotten all year.
Bitcoin dropped after seven out of eight FOMC meetings in 2025, and that was during a cutting cycle that should have helped risk assets. The January 2026 hold played out the same way—BTC fell 7.3% in 48 hours, and XRP went from around $1.91 on meeting day to $1.60 by early February as the sell-off compounded with the Warsh nomination news days later.
The rate decision is always priced in ahead of time, so the move comes from what Powell says in the press conference and where the dots land. Wednesday will likely follow the same playbook, and XRP will take its cue from how Bitcoin reacts to the dot plot.
What a Hawkish, Neutral, or Dovish Hold Means for the XRP Price
All three outcomes on Wednesday are technically a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%. What separates them is the dot plot: how many cuts the Fed sees for the rest of the year, and that’s what will actually move XRP.
Hawkish Hold: Dot Plot Drops to Zero Cuts
If enough FOMC members pull their dots up in response to the oil shock and tariff inflation, the median could shift from one cut to zero for 2026. That would be the worst outcome for risk assets because it reprices the entire second half of the year as a higher-for-longer environment. Bitcoin would likely drop toward the $63,000 to $65,000 range, and XRP tends to fall harder than BTC on hawkish surprises. At $1.40, a move like that could push XRP toward $1.20 to $1.30, which is the next real support zone.
Neutral Hold: Dot Plot Stays at One Cut
This is the most likely outcome. If the Fed holds, the dot plot stays at one cut, and Powell sticks to “data-dependent” language, the market probably won’t get anything new to work with. Based on how the last several meetings have played out, BTC would probably drift 2% to 4% lower over 48 hours as traders sell the news, and XRP would stay pinned in its $1.35 to $1.45 range. This scenario assumes no new catalyst in either direction, which means more of the same sideways grind.
Dovish Hold: Dot Plot Moves to Two Cuts
This is the least expected outcome, but it carries the most upside. If the dot plot shifts from one cut to two, it would signal that the Fed sees the growth slowdown as a bigger concern than the inflation spike from oil and tariffs. BTC could rally 3% to 5% in the first 24 hours, and altcoins tend to outperform Bitcoin when the Fed turns dovish. XRP could push toward $1.55 to $1.60, which would be the first break above resistance since January.
Where Does XRP Go After March 18?
Wednesday’s dot plot will set the direction for the next few weeks, but one FOMC meeting isn’t going to reverse a 62% crash on its own. Even the dovish scenario only gets XRP to $1.55 to $1.60, which is still well below where it was trading in January. What the dot plot really does is tell you how much room XRP has to recover from here — a two-cut signal opens the door, a zero-cut signal shuts it for months.
The bigger moves come after Wednesday. The CLARITY Act is the next catalyst with real weight for XRP, and it needs to clear the Senate before midterm election season takes over around May to June. Warsh’s first FOMC as Fed Chair, likely in June, will show whether the rate path actually changes under new leadership. Wednesday is the starting point — it tells you whether those catalysts have room to work or whether the macro headwinds just got heavier.
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