The Islamabad peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, with both sides blaming each other for the failure. It was the first face-to-face meeting between the two countries since 1979, and it ended with Vice President Vance saying Iran refused to commit to giving up its nuclear program. Hours later, President Trump ordered a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices jumped back above $100.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) dropped about 2% to around $71,000 and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) fell to $1.33. But the selloff was smaller than most expected. The Bitcoin price is still above where it was before the ceasefire was announced on April 7, and the market didn’t panic the way it did when the war started in late February.
With the ceasefire set to expire around April 22, the Senate returning today with the CLARITY Act on deck, and the FOMC meeting on April 28-29, the next two weeks could define where both XRP and Bitcoin head for the rest of Q2.
What Happened in Islamabad and How BTC and XRP Reacted
The peace talks started on Saturday April 11 and ran for 21 hours straight at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad. Vice President Vance led the U.S. side, while Iran sent its Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. It was the highest-level face-to-face meeting between the two countries since 1979, and Pakistan brokered the whole thing.
The two big sticking points were Iran’s nuclear program and who controls the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply. The U.S. wanted Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions entirely. Iran wanted to keep control of the Strait, plus war reparations and an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. After 21 hours, Vance walked out and told reporters that Iran “chose not to accept our terms.”
Hours after the talks ended, Trump announced a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz targeting ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. Oil prices rose again—WTI crude climbed back above $100 per barrel this morning. The IEA had already warned that the oil supply shock could get worse in April as emergency stockpile releases start running low.
The Bitcoin price dropped to a session low of around $70,600 before recovering to just above $71,000. XRP fell about 2% to $1.33, and the broader crypto market dipped to around $2.41 trillion. However, the selloff wasn’t as bad as most people expected. When the war first started, Bitcoin crashed to $60,000, but this time, BTC is still trading near the same level it was at before the ceasefire was announced on April 7.
Three Events That Could Move XRP and Bitcoin Before May
The ceasefire expires around April 22, and neither the U.S. nor Iran has said whether it will be extended. Pakistan urged both sides to keep the truce going, but Trump is now blockading Iranian ports and Iran’s parliament speaker came home saying they “will not bow to any threats.” So it’s hard to see this ceasefire holding without some kind of last-minute breakthrough.
If the ceasefire breaks, oil prices could go well past $105 and the Bitcoin and XRP price would likely drop as investors pull back from the market. If new talks get announced or the truce is extended, both would probably rally again the same way they did when the original ceasefire was announced on April 7. The Senate returns from recess today, and the CLARITY Act needs to clear the Banking Committee in the next two weeks before midterm election pressure takes over the calendar.
If the bill doesn’t move before May, there’s a real chance it gets shelved for the rest of the year. But if it does pass committee, XRP would likely get a serious boost from new ETF inflows, potentially in the billions, as institutions that have been waiting for a clear legal framework finally get the green light. Bitcoin wouldn’t be directly affected by the bill itself, but a major regulatory win for crypto would lift the whole market.
Moreover, the FOMC meets on April 28-29, and it’s likely Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed Chair before Kevin Warsh takes over on May 15. March CPI came in at 3.3%, and with oil back above $100, inflation is going the wrong way for rate cuts. A dovish signal from Powell would give both Bitcoin and XRP room to rally, since lower rate expectations push money into riskier assets. A hawkish tone does the opposite — it keeps the same pressure on both that has dragged the market down since February.
Where Could XRP and Bitcoin Go From Here?
If you hold Bitcoin, $70,000 is the key price level to watch. BTC has held above it through the Islamabad talks collapse and the blockade, which shows the market has already priced in the talks outcome. Should oil prices drop below $90 on a ceasefire extension or new talks, Bitcoin could push back toward $75,000 to $80,000 by the end of April. However, if the war resumes and oil goes past $110, Bitcoin price could fall back to $65,000.
For XRP, the CLARITY Act matters more than the war right now. XRP is at $1.33, which is just above the $1.28 support that’s keeping it from dropping further below. Should the bill clear committee, XRP could move toward $1.60 to $1.80 on fresh institutional inflows. But if it stalls and the war tensions pick up again, a break below $1.28 toward $1.20 is more likely. The only way XRP gets back above $2 before summer is if the war ends and the CLARITY Act passes in the same window—and that’s a lot harder after what happened this weekend.
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