Stock Market Live March 20, 2026: S&P 500 (SPY) Lower on Higher Oil Prices Again

With no signs of war cooling off, markets are deep in the red again.

At the moment, the S&P 500 is down 0.38%, or by 25 points. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY | SPY Price Prediction) is down 0.57%, or by $3.77. The Dow is down 0.3%, or by 148 points. The Nasdaq is down 0.52%, or by 130 points. Gold is up by $64 to $4,667. Bitcoin is also up about $782 at $70,704.

According to Israel, Iran has lost the ability to enrich uranium and produce ballistic missiles. All of which could help bring closure to the conflict earlier than expected. If that’s the case, and it can help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil could cool off. And markets could bounce back.

Unfortunately, at this point, it’s all a wait-and-see.

Markets are Pricing in a Recession, Says HSBC 

According to analysts at HSBC, markets are pricing in a recession.

However, they added that markets are still creating buy opportunities, spotting “dislocations in equity markets,” as quoted by CNBC.

“Talk of a shift toward stagflation is building, but we would argue equity markets’ price action is more indicative of trading for a recessionary outcome,” they said. “Our regime models show the equity market is now pricing a 35% probability of recession, up from 10% just two weeks ago, while the implied likelihood of stagflation has barely moved, holding at 8%.”

Some of those “dislocations” can be found in oversold markets such as Korea, South Africa, and Indonesia, where “valuations that look increasingly attractive, especially as our work shows these markets are not among the most exposed to higher oil prices.”

That being said, investors may want to look into ETFs for each.

For example, with South Africa, investors may want to look at the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (EZA), which just fell from about $82 to a recent low of $64.93. With Indonesia, we can look at the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO), which is oversold at $15.33. With Korea, we can look at the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), which is already starting to pivot after dropping.

Market Movers: Chevron 

Since the year began, Chevron (NYSE: CVX) exploded from about $150 to a recent high of $201.44. And, according to HSBC analysts, it’s still worth buying. In fact, the firm just upgraded CVX to a buy with a price target of $215 from $180, noting that the oil company is less reliant on Middle Eastern oil than Exxon due to the war.

They also noted that “Chevron’s crude oil and natural gas production in the region totals less than 200,000 barrels per day. Exxon, meanwhile, counts on the Middle East for more than 900,000 barrels per day,” as noted by CNBC.

Market Movers: FedEx up $26 in Premarket 

Shares of FedEx (NYSE: FDX) are up $26 in premarket on solid earnings and guidance.

In its most recent quarter, the company’s EPS of $5.25 beat by $1.12. Revenue of $24 billion, up 8.1% year over year, beat by $520 million.

Looking ahead, the company forecasts revenue growth of 6.0% to 6.5% and EPS of $19.30 to $20.10 (midpoint $19.70) as compared to estimates of $18.69. “As we look ahead, we are very well positioned to drive higher profitability and generate strong free cash flow both this fiscal year and longer-term, supporting meaningful stockholder value creation,” stated CFO John Dietrich, as quoted by Seeking Alpha.