Wall Street Turns Less Bearish on Airbnb: Truist Raises Target to $129

Truist upgraded Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB | ABNB Price Prediction) to Hold from Sell on Thursday, raising its price target to $129 from $107, after revising its 2026 adjusted EBITDA and earnings estimates higher. The move is part of a broader sector reassessment following Q4 reports across the lodging and leisure space.

With Airbnb shares trading at $133.88 on Thursday morning — already above the new target — the upgrade signals reduced bearishness rather than a fresh buying opportunity.

The Analyst’s Case

Truist’s upgrade centers on improving profitability expectations. The firm raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimates for Airbnb after Q4 results showed the company’s investment cycle beginning to stabilize. Management guided for adjusted EBITDA margin approximately flat year-over-year in Q1 2026 and stable full-year 2026 margins as the company reinvests efficiency gains into marketing and technology. Crucially, the Q4 margin compression — 28% adjusted EBITDA margin versus 31% a year earlier — was deliberate and tied to strategic spending on hotel partnerships and new services, reflecting deliberate strategic investment.

The demand picture also strengthened. Gross Booking Value reached $20.40 billion in Q4, up 16% year-over-year — the strongest GBV growth in more than two years. Revenue grew 12.0% to $2.78 billion, beating estimates of $2.71 billion, and Q1 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $2.59B–$2.63B, representing 14%–16% growth.

Why the Move Matters Now

The upgrade from Sell to Hold is meaningful context for investors who have watched the stock recover sharply. Airbnb shares are up 7.2% over the past month, having bounced from levels closer to the prior $107 target. The stock’s 52-week range spans $99.88 to $143.88, and it currently trades above both its 50-day moving average of $129.83 and 200-day moving average of $128.57. The broader analyst community remains split: 20 buy ratings, 21 holds, and 3 sells, with a consensus price target of $144.99 — well above Truist’s more cautious $129.

One counterpoint worth noting: co-founder and director Joseph Gebbia sold 58,000 shares on March 23 at prices between $130.07 and $133.93, following a similar sale of 58,000 shares on March 9. Both transactions were executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plan, making them routine, pre-scheduled transactions.

What It Means for Your Portfolio

For long-term investors, Truist’s move reflects a floor being established on the bear case, signaling reduced bearishness rather than a catalyst for new positions. With the stock already trading above the $129 target, the upgrade offers little near-term upside by Truist’s own math. The more constructive case rests on full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance of at least low double digits, a $5.6 billion remaining share repurchase authorization, and a potential tax rate decline to mid-to-high teens under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Q1 2026 results will offer confirmation of whether margin stabilization is on track.