Roblox Is at Its Cheapest Valuation Since 2021. BTIG Makes the Case for Staying Long

BTIG has trimmed its price target on Roblox Corp. (NYSE:RBLX | RBLX Price Prediction) to $122 from $141 but is keeping its Buy rating intact, arguing that the selloff has pushed shares to their lowest forward multiple since BTIG began covering the stock in 2021. For long-term investors, the call frames a meaningful valuation reset as a potential entry point rather than a warning sign.

The Analyst’s Case

BTIG reduced its estimates to account for the Russia ban and a slight sequential decline in total daily active users stemming from churn of low-and-no-spend active users onboarded during the spring and summer 2025 viral hit cycle. Despite the estimate cuts, the firm views the current price as a compelling reset. RBLX is down 27.73% year-to-date, having fallen from a 52-week high of $150.59 to a recent price of $58.50.

The broader Wall Street consensus remains firmly bullish. According to aggregated analyst data, RBLX carries 27 Buy ratings against just one Sell, with a consensus price target of $106.

Company Snapshot

Roblox operates a global gaming and user-generated content platform that reported Q4 2025 bookings of $2.22 billion, up 63% year-over-year, and daily active users of 144 million, up 69% year-over-year. Full-year free cash flow reached $1.353 billion. The platform’s deferred revenue accounting model creates a persistent gap between bookings and GAAP revenue, which has contributed to headline misses and investor confusion.

The company’s over-18 user cohort is growing at more than 50% year-over-year and monetizes 40% higher than younger users. CFO Naveen Chopra stated on the Q4 earnings call: “We have more conviction than ever in the ability for Roblox Corporation to grow in excess of 20%.”

Why the Move Matters Now

The price target cut reflects real near-term friction, including mid-single-digit engagement headwinds from the age-check rollout and a heavier capex cycle as Roblox adds a third core data center. Yet BTIG’s decision to hold its Buy signals that the structural growth story remains intact at this valuation. Roblox’s current 3% share of the global gaming content market leaves significant runway toward its 10% target.

What It Means for Your Portfolio

For retirement-focused investors, RBLX remains a speculative-growth position given its sustained GAAP losses and a fully diluted share count of 746 million. That said, BTIG’s maintained Buy rating at what it considers the stock’s cheapest valuation since 2021 suggests the valuation has reset significantly. The near-term churn headwinds stand alongside a platform that generated $607 million in operating cash flow in a single quarter.