Firefly Stock Is Up 19% Over the Past Week, But Reddit Says the Market Has It All Wrong

Established in 2017, Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY | FLY Price Prediction) shares are up roughly 19% over the last 5 days, trading just under $32 after a roughly 20% single-session surge on April 1 tied to SpaceX’s IPO announcement, on top of a 52% one-month gain. The stock spent much of late 2025 in free fall from its $73.80 week-high. The company is focused on affordable access to space for commercial and defense customers. 

The underlying business has changed materially. Q4 2025 revenue came in at $57.7 million, up from $9 million in Q4 2024, and the company posted a gross profit of $16 million. Full-year 2025 revenue grew 163% to $160 million, and Firefly guided to $420 million to $450 million in 2026 revenue, with a $1.4 billion backlog already in hand. The VICTUS DIEM responsive launch exercise for the U.S. Space Force, completed in late March, highlighted the company’s ability to deploy satellites on roughly 24-hour notice.

Reddit’s Case: Firefly Is a Defense Software Company in Disguise

Social sentiment on Firefly sits at 88 out of 100, rated very bullish, driven almost entirely by a single post on r/wallstreetbets from user Scared_Step4051.

$FLY – priced like a dodgy rocket company…their software tracked every Iranian missile fired in combat
by u/Scared_Step4051 in wallstreetbets

The post argues Firefly’s core value is its SciTec subsidiary, which runs FORGE, described as “the processing system for every US missile warning satellite in operation.” The author frames the stock as mispriced: “The most nuts part of all = the market is giving the software multiple to the hardware company, and the hardware multiple to the software company.” The post reached 182 upvotes and 78 comments by the end of the day.

Three reasons bulls are citing:

• Firefly’s FORGE contract, worth $372 million in total, is embedded in the U.S. Space Force’s missile-warning infrastructure, with what the Reddit post describes as “classified switching costs that make the position essentially permanent.”
• The company was onboarded to the $151 billion SHIELD IDIQ ceiling contract and is positioned for the $175 billion Golden Dome program.
• Q4 revenue was 87% from spacecraft and defense software, not launch, suggesting the market may be undervaluing the software business by framing Firefly as a rocket company.

Where the Bear Case Has Traction

Firefly Aerospace concluded a transformative 2025 with a stark financial contrast, reporting a $298 million net loss and negative free cash flow of $238 million despite record revenue growth. This fiscal strain, coupled with a disclosed material weakness in internal controls, prompted Cantor Fitzgerald to slash its price target from $65 to $35 to account for heightened execution risk in the 2026 launch manifest.

While the consensus analyst target has moderated to roughly $37, the total absence of sell ratings suggests a resilient valuation floor. Retail interest remains anchored by the broader SpaceX IPO narrative and Firefly’s successful pivot into high-margin defense software, even as the implied upside from current trading levels continues to narrow.