Wes Moss Says Roth Conversion Hype ‘Is Not True at All’ and Detroit Retiree Dave Proves Why

A Detroit listener named Dave put a sharper question to financial advisor Wes Moss than most people bother to ask: if Roth conversions are so universally praised, why does the math not work for everyone? Moss’s answer, delivered on the Clark Howard Podcast’s “Ask An Advisor” segment on March 31, 2026, was unusually direct for a topic that usually generates only cheerleading.

“The Roth conversion has taken on its own virality. It’s like, whoa, you got to do a Roth conversion. Everybody needs to do a Roth conversion or else you’re crazy. That’s not true at all,” Moss said. He is right, and the reason comes down to one question most people never ask before converting: what tax rate am I paying today versus what rate will I actually face in retirement?

The Tax Rate Spread Is the Only Number That Matters

A Roth conversion is a tax prepayment. You take money from a traditional IRA, add it to your taxable income for the year, pay ordinary income tax on it now, and the money grows tax-free going forward. The conversion wins if your current tax rate is lower than your future rate. It loses if your current rate is higher.

Moss walked through the core scenario directly: “If you’re going to convert IRA money to a Roth and pay 20% to do it or 25% to do it, but you know, in retirement, you’re going to be in the 15% bracket federally and your state tax may end up at zero, then why would you pay 25% to get money out of an IRA and put it in a Roth when you’re only going to be paying 15% in the future?”

That spread, 25% today versus 15% later, means the conversion costs more on every dollar converted. On a $100,000 conversion, that is a $10,000 penalty for following advice that did not fit the situation.

Dave’s Actual Strategy Deserves a Serious Look

Dave described himself as someone with two-thirds of his money in a traditional IRA, and he proposed an alternative: spend down the traditional IRA in lower-tax years and delay Social Security until 70 rather than converting. This approach has real merit.

Assume Dave is 63, has $900,000 total, with $600,000 in a traditional IRA and $300,000 in taxable accounts, and plans to retire at 65. His Social Security full retirement age benefit is $2,800 per month (illustrative). Claiming at 70 instead of 67 adds to that benefit (illustrative).

Between 65 and 70, Dave has five years with no Social Security income and no wages. His taxable income is entirely within his control. Drawing $50,000 per year from the traditional IRA during that window likely keeps him within the 12% federal bracket for a single filer, and many states exempt IRA withdrawals from state income tax after a certain age. He pays a low rate on money he would have had to take out anyway once RMDs begin at 73, and earns a permanently higher Social Security benefit that is 85% taxable at most but inflation-adjusted for life.

A Roth conversion during his working years, when income is higher, could easily push him into the 22% or 24% bracket. Paying more now to avoid paying less later is a mistake dressed up as planning.

When Conversion Actually Makes Sense

The profile where Roth conversions deliver real value is specific. Someone who retired early, has a gap before RMDs or Social Security begin, sits in the 12% bracket during that window, and expects large RMDs to push them into the 22% or higher bracket later is a genuine candidate. A retiree at 60 with $1.5 million in a traditional IRA and no other income sources faces RMDs starting at 73 that could force $80,000 or more per year into taxable income, potentially triggering higher Medicare premiums through IRMAA surcharges on top of the tax hit.

Converting $50,000 to $75,000 per year during the low-income window at 12% genuinely reduces lifetime tax burden when the spread runs in the right direction: low rate today, higher rate forced later.

Dave’s situation runs the opposite direction, and Moss gave him the honest verdict: “Don’t feel as though you’re crazy because it doesn’t make sense to you, because it doesn’t make sense for a lot of people.”

The One Step That Clarifies Everything

Before converting a single dollar, estimate your retirement tax rate with specificity. Add up expected Social Security income, any pension, and the RMD you would face at 73 based on your projected IRA balance. Compare that total to your current marginal rate. If retirement income pushes you into a lower bracket, skip the conversion and spend down the traditional IRA in low-income years instead.

The IRS’s RMD tables and the Social Security Administration’s benefit estimator at SSA.gov provide the inputs. The math is straightforward. The Roth conversion hype is not a substitute for running it.