Is It Too Late to Buy nLIGHT (LASR)?

nLIGHT (NASDAQ:LASR) has risen 837% over the past year, moving from $6.44 to $60.32. If you watched that happen from the sidelines, I understand the feeling. The question now is whether you missed it entirely or whether this is one of those rare cases where the story is still early.

I’ve watched their price run up from the sidelines, and what I keep coming back to with nLIGHT is that the fundamentals actually accelerated into the run rather than lagging it.

Valuation: Expensive, But Not Absurd Given the Trajectory

With GAAP net losses still on the books, there’s no traditional P/E to anchor to. What we do have is a price-to-sales ratio of 13x against full-year 2025 revenue of $261.33M. That’s a premium multiple, no question. But consider what’s underneath it: Q4 2025 revenue grew 71% year-over-year, GAAP gross margin expanded from 2.4% to 30.7% in a single year, and adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of $11.3M to a profit of $10.7M. Operating cash flow for the full year came in at $21.33M. The stock is priced for growth, but the growth is showing up in actual results. The consensus analyst target sits at $73.50, with one firm carrying a $95 price target and an Outperform rating. Of 7 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it a buy or strong buy and none rate it a sell.

Forward Catalyst: Defense Demand Is the Engine

The core driver here is directed energy. nLIGHT’s Aerospace and Defense segment generated $56.3M in Q4 2025, up 87% year-over-year, making it the company’s largest segment by a wide margin. The company recently unveiled a new 70kW-class laser weapon system that drew immediate analyst attention. CEO Scott Keeney said on the Q4 call:

“I am confident that our growth will continue and believe we are well positioned for new contract wins in our key markets of directed energy, laser sensing and advanced manufacturing.”

—Scott Keeney, Q4 2025 Earnings Call

The stock is also under-covered relative to its move, which means institutional discovery may still be ongoing. That’s a real tailwind for patient holders.

Downside Risk: Real and Worth Pricing In

The risks here are not trivial. Q1 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $70M to $76M, a sequential step-down from the record $81.19M Q4 print. Customer concentration is a structural vulnerability. And the company still carries a beta of 2.3, meaning broad market selloffs hit this name hard. The 52-week high is $74.10, so the stock has already pulled back from its peak.

There’s also an insider selling signal worth noting: CEO Keeney executed 12 separate sell transactions between March 5 and March 9, 2026, at prices ranging from $57.48 to $63.40. The CFO and CAO also sold shares in that same window. These were post-earnings sales at prices well below the $95 analyst target, which could reflect routine liquidity management or could reflect a more tempered internal view of near-term upside. Weighing that honestly matters when sizing a position.

Verdict

I don’t think it’s too late. The business has fundamentally transformed in 12 months, defense spending on directed energy systems shows no sign of reversing, and the margin trajectory suggests the model has real operating leverage. The stock is not cheap, and the insider selling is a flag worth watching. But if you believe the directed energy buildout is a multi-year cycle and you’re comfortable holding through volatility in a high-beta name, nLIGHT at current levels still offers a credible path to the analyst consensus target. Size the position to match the risk: if a 30% drawdown would keep you up at night, keep the allocation small.